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What is all AAA debt became downgraded? Could the rating agencies reset their scale?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 09:59:22 AM EST
Just the chunks that are AAA thanks to the monoline "wraps". It's still big enough to create real dislocation.

But you still have US Treasuries (whose price, unsurprisingly, is going up these days - their yield is going down).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 10:02:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, there is a flight to quality explaining the rising price of US Treasuries. However, if the ratings agencies decide to downgrade US Treasuries so they are no longer AAA, there will be a sell-off of those as well and yields will rise again.

I'm not saying that the downgrading of the insurers is a downgrading of all AAA securities, I'm just imagining a scenario in which creditworthiness deteriorates across the board.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 10:06:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but this is a bit different, so far.

The "threats" to the US ratings are purely ideological assaults on the welfare state. Downgrading the US government makes no sense from a US investor's perspective: it's always going to be the safest entity around - it can tax everyone else in the US, and no foreign government can be safer - if only becuase investment outside the US can be regulated by the US government for US domestic investors.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 10:20:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Downgrading the US government makes no sense from a US investor's perspective: it's always going to be the safest entity around

Why is that necessarily Jérôme? Could it not decide to default on part of his debt, or inflate away? In that case it would probably be worse than bonds from a Government that more or less balances the accounts, wouldn't it?

Having said that, I agree that in that particular case, it was pure propaganda against social programs. There was no mention of the war, or of tax cuts on the rich, which is a rather clear canary in the mine...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 10:50:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think so, because in case of massive investment in foreign country debt from US investors, the US government may put some restriction on offshore investment that would ruin this advantage.

Very theoretically, US government may put into jail investors who would divert money from US treasuries.

A free fox in a free henhouse!

by Xavier in Paris on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 11:34:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, they could add those restrictions. But UNTIL they do so, would there not be an advantage?

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 12:02:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ack, I meant "what if"

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 12:13:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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