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Would "Oh my!" be an appropriate response to this news?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 09:42:03 AM EST
"Holy shit!" seems more appropriate.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 09:47:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the problem with you continentals. Too excitable.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 09:48:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As the hurricane said to the palm tree
"Hang on to your nuts, this ain't no ordinary blow-job"

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 10:22:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No it's the invisible hand of the market at work.

Why's that Wall Street guy have his pants down?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 11:51:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ManfromMiddletown:
Why's that Wall Street guy have his pants down?

Beats me. He was falling past my window so fast I couldn't get a good look.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 12:08:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think that you were the one being beat.

Invisible hand at work again, strokin' off the bosses.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 12:13:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey! The invisible hand just picked my pocket!

Il faut se dépêcher d'agir, on a le monde à reconstruire
by dconrad (drconrad {arobase} gmail {point} com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 07:46:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does anyone want to hazard a guess as to how bad this could get?
by gobacktotexas (dickcheneyfanclub@gmail.com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 10:38:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This quote partially overlaps with Jerome's quote in his top-level comment.

Bloomberg.com: Corporate Default Risk Soars to Record on Ambac Ratings Cut (21 January 2008)

Ambac was stripped of its top AAA grade by Fitch Ratings on Jan. 18 after the New York-based company abandoned plans to raise new equity. Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's are reviewing Ambac and MBIA, throwing doubt on the ratings of the $2.4 trillion of debt guaranteed by bond insurers and threatening forced sales by investors that are restricted to holding the highest-grade bonds.
I'll hazard a guess that the downgrading of Ambac happened after the close of trading on US markets on Friday, knowing that the US market would be closed for a holiday on Monday. Tomorrow's market open in New York should be interesting. This may have influenced the Asian markets, which were still open and has definitely hit the European markets today as well as, again, the Asian and Australian markets this morning. The following piece doesn't mention the downgrading of bond insurers, concentrating instead on the reation to Bush's announced economic stimulus package:
International Herald Tribune: European and Asian markets plunge on U.S. recession fears
Global stock markets plunged Monday as fears spread that the contagion in U.S. mortgage markets was spreading. Indexes in Europe fell as much as 7 percent after a massive sell-off in Asia.

...

Investors in Asia have been in a state of denial about the possibility of a U.S. recession, said Adrian Mowat, chief strategist for JPMorgan in Asia. But now, he said, "there's no debate about it."

Now, this is very interesting:
There may be more downturns in store for Asia, particularly as banks report the impact from their investments in the U.S. mortgage market. Companies "have not announced their year-end numbers yet," said Schuller, the Moody's credit officer, and if they are holding subprime assets, they may need to write-off their value. "They are going to be taking these 25 to 30 percent haircuts we're seeing on Wall Street," she said. "I think it is going to shock people."


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 11:00:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I understand it right -- and I'm an economist, not a trader, so maybe I don't -- this is the doomsday scenario, the one that puts the banking system at risk.

The "Send lawyers, guns and money" one.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 11:33:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The banking system is not at risk.

It's fucked.

We are looking at Japan 2.0 - in Spades.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 11:39:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't this a time to scream "market failure" and have the central banks start, I don't know, guaranteeing things? Nationalising things?

Anyone?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 11:18:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Except that the central bank doesn't seem to know what's going on.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 11:34:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about this, we adopt the same approach as most industrialized nations do to bank deposits.

So that the government covers deposits to a certain point, and insures individuals and pension funds to a reasonable point (say $1 million US as of 1/01/08) including mutual funds and all pensions save those that are fixed benefit.

The rest is either written off, or held by the insuring goverment in order to create long term income to cover the cost of the intervention.

In one fell swoop, banks, power plants, all sorts of public infrastructure returned into the hands of the people.  And subject to democratic control based upon the principle of one person, one vote, not one dollar, one vote.

The income ineqaulity of the past 30 years could be corrected in one action, and the productive assets taken by the government could be used to insure continuity of government services.

Paul Krugman has been fretting about how we get that Great Compresssion that occurred during the 1937-1945 period in the US, that was brought on by massive spending on the Second World War and the demands for a greater portion of the surplus value of production.

When Krugman spoke at the launch of an populist economic policy inititative by a union backed group he has this look of "oh, shit" when he was talking about how it took a world war to get a great compression the first time around.  If there is prompt government action, that need not occur this time around.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 12:06:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In one fell swoop, banks, power plants, all sorts of public infrastructure returned into the hands of the people.

More like into the hands of faceless state bureaucrats. We've had enough of that in this country. We're just getting rid of the last state-owned things which the state has no business of owning, and I'd hate having to start from scratch all over again.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Jan 22nd, 2008 at 01:37:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy Crap indeed!  
I have only now remarked that the CAC40 felled 6.8% today! I don't remember to have seen something like this before (then again, I do not always pay attention)
by Deni on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 12:33:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not since 9/11 has the CAC40 fallen as far in a day. (says Boursorama).
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 12:51:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ditto the DAX in Frankfurt - off 7.16%.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 01:12:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, what's a few percent amongst friends?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 01:44:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By analogy with The Wizard of Oz ("Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh My!") I would say:

"Bears and Bears and Bears, Oh My!"

Il faut se dépêcher d'agir, on a le monde à reconstruire

by dconrad (drconrad {arobase} gmail {point} com) on Mon Jan 21st, 2008 at 07:48:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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