Only once has the ILEI fallen every month in a quarter without leading an actual recession ... in the late 60's, when it was short circuited by two aggressive discount rate cuts.

So no point now avoiding a substantially looser monetary policy that would be taken to "signal" that the Fed fears a recession ... everyone knows a US recession is on its way.

Now eyes turn to China, to see how well they manage to keep growth on track in the lead in to the Olympics.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.