Display:
I'd add an extra feature, from a certain point of view, if there is structural instability related to the role of a country like China, for example, isn't this really saying that:

The system is unable to remain stable when countries like China are thrown into the "free trade" mix.

"Free trade" was pursued for the benefit of those at the top of the tree, but the inevitable result was to create imbalances in the "open economy" that a market cannot deal with.

The solution (which I'm not saying I'm wholly comfortable with) might have been to phase in Chinese involvement in the "free market," reducing barriers over a number of years, rather than very quickly.

I guess, I'm groping towards the current crisis as an inevitable outcome of Doha (GATT) and the WTO.

I don't know how correct that is, but I do have a feeling it's part of the story tha Martin Wolf is trying to point to. But he would never want to acknowledge that the instability comes out of "free trade" engineering attempts.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2008 at 02:31:37 PM EST
While I'm at it, if we're talking about excess liquidity, the development of new financial instruments (which are sold on the basis of having less risk than previous ones) actually, in my view, amounts to an increase in effective liquidity in the system, irrespective of central bank interest rate actions.

That is to say, deregulation and the ensuing rush into complex financial instruments, creates extra liquidity right up until the moment people lose confidence in them.

So "Bubbles" crime wasn't just his actions on the base rate, but his consistent belief in deregulation.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2008 at 02:35:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IMHO one of the biggest blunders was to allow banks to take loans off their balance sheet by securitizing them. I say sell on the cash flows if you want, but keep the loan on your books.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2008 at 03:11:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely.

In doing this, they are essentially permanently outsourcing their principal business, which is the implicit (and sometimes explicit, in the world of trade finance) guarantee of the credit of borrowers.

Banks also offload the guarantee temporarily (credit derivatives) or partially (eg AMBAC and the other monoline credit insurers).

The solution I advocate is putting the assets into trust and dividing the guarantee payments from borrowers (because the guarantee is the true value their interest payments is exchanged for) between investors and managers through the creation and sale of proportional units of this revenue stream.

This partnership-based "unitisation" is of course selling on the cash flows as you suggest.

Because as Canadian financial markets show, you don't actually need to sell ownership and control when you can parcel up the revenues (into Income Trusts in that case) and sell off the units.

This "unitisation" is an emerging "asset-based" alternative to the "securisation" now pretty much frozen solid.


"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Jan 23rd, 2008 at 04:38:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... introduce a country like China into a more or less open trade system in the context of an international transactions system where the burden of adjustment is placed upon the current account surplus nation ... as pointed out by Keynes at Bretton Woods directly after WWII.

But what did he know?

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Jan 24th, 2008 at 12:24:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series