European Tribune

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You seem to have a problem with basic maths.

By 2050 the ratio of Europe's working age to senior age population will decrease by 50%, two workers instead of four for every retiree.

That's only 33% of only adults.

Of course, this whole demographics game you bought into is silly, because it ignores the shifts also affecting other populations with no income: workers have supported lots more children and jobless and housewifes in the past than the increased number of retirees in the future...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Wed Jan 23rd, 2008 at 06:15:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The particular link in my post actually ignores population decline in the calculation... It's an article about graying rather than depopulation.  

And it's a little weird that you're celebrating the fact that the remaining European workers in 2050 will be able to support so many more old people because they have so few children to support.

Giuseppe Carone and Declan Costello of the International Monetary Fund projected in September 2006 that the ratio of retirees to workers in Europe will double to 54% by 2050 from four workers to two workers for every retiree.[1] William H. Frey, an analyst for the Brookings Institution think tank, predicts the median age in Europe will increase from 37.7 years old in 2003 to 52.3 years old by 2050 while the median age of Americans will rise to only 35.4 years old. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates only 39% of Europeans between the ages of 55 to 65 work. If Frey's prediction for Europe's declining median age is correct, productivity in Europe will radically decrease over the next four decades.[2] Austria's Social Affairs Minister painted a bleaker picture in 2006, saying the 55 to 64 year old age bracket in the European Union will be larger than the 15 to 24 year old bracket by 2010. The Economic Policy Committee and the European Commission issued a report in 2006 estimating the working age population in the EU will decrease by 48 million, 16%, between 2010 and 2050, while the elderly population will increase by 58 million, 77%.

Anyway, your correction is about half right, and it still isn't a pretty picture.

Qui vit sans folie n'est pas si sage qu'il croit.

by FPS Doug on Wed Jan 23rd, 2008 at 06:28:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Italy, for example, the graying of the population is a little more extreme than the rest of Europe, with the over-65's expected to make up 40% of the population by 2050.

Qui vit sans folie n'est pas si sage qu'il croit.
by FPS Doug on Wed Jan 23rd, 2008 at 06:41:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So one of your examples about aging is a shift within Europe, another the not at all representative country with the second lowest birthrate... To boot, you link to a second-rate source that doesn't even give sources, instead of checking data yourself -- that 40% appears to be the percentage of those older than 65 in the population of those older than 21, while the older than 65 are preojected at 32.4% of the total population.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Jan 24th, 2008 at 10:04:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And it's a little weird that you're celebrating the fact that the remaining European workers in 2050 will be able to support so many more old people because they have so few children to support.

Why? Are you one of those who never understood this joke: "Eat shit! A hundred billion flies can't be wrong!"

You seem to think that a predicted decrease in 'working-age population' means a decrease in the share of them in the total population -- but that leaves out potential decrease in the overall population, immigration, and change in retirement age from the picture.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 24th, 2008 at 09:54:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I\'m new here, and if this is the level of conversation, it\'s really appalling.

DoDo has a dispute with Doug about population, so he tells him to \"eat shit?\"

Who is this person, DoDo?

Is he typical of posters here?

 

Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

by Ulrich Bunion (ulrichbunion(at)yahoodotde) on Thu Jan 24th, 2008 at 11:05:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Welcome Ulrich! We are always glad to have new posters from Europe.

If you'd like to know what is typical of posters here, please feel free to stick around and read. There is no better way of finding an answer to your question.

In the meantime, let me correct a misapprehension no doubt due to the fact that English is your second language. DoDo above did not tell FPS Doug to eat shit. He asked him if he understood a joke about flies eating shit. I'm sure you'll agree that it's not the same thing!

:-)

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jan 25th, 2008 at 02:40:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds like Jacob has himself a new persona ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 25th, 2008 at 03:02:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, but Ulrich is von Deutschland, it says so on his user page.

He doesn't understand troll ratings yet, but I'm sure he will.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jan 25th, 2008 at 03:23:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That maybe so - but I find it very peculiar that the comment he refers to would be singled out. Let it pass ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Jan 25th, 2008 at 04:56:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
May I also suggest you read the New User Guide, especially the section on ratings?

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jan 25th, 2008 at 02:53:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Na mach' mal halb lang! Denkst du, dass Doug denkt, dass Milliarden von Fliegen nicht falsch liegen können? Wenn wir schon dabei sind, schaust Du zu viel in die Glotze? Dann bist du vielleicht auch über den Gottschalk pikiert, wenn man bedenkt, was er da in Harald Schmidt's Late Show schrie...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Fri Jan 25th, 2008 at 04:09:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps he could eat shit if he'd had some miracle fruit :p
by dulcifium on Thu Feb 14th, 2008 at 04:53:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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