ZDF CDU 36,3% SPD 37,1% FDP 9,1% Green 8,0% Left 4,8% Other 4,7%
ARD CDU 35,7% SPD 37,5% FDP 9,4% Green 8,0% Left 4,9% Other 4,5%
ZDF sees a "patt". 55 seats for both CDU-FDP or SPD-Greens. ARD sees a tiny SPD-Green majority of 56 seats.
Lower Saxony:
ZDF CDU 42,3% SPD 30,9% FDP 8,0% Green 8,0% Left 6,9% Other 3,9%
ARD CDU 43,8% SPD 29,6% FDP 8,1% Green 8,1% Left 6,6% Other 3,8%
Seems pretty clear. CDU-FDP coalition.
ZDF 18:42 CET: CDU 36.3% (-12.5) SPD 37.1% (+8.0) FDP 9.1% (+1.2) Greens 8.0% (-3.1) Leftists 4.9%
ARD/HR 18:45 CET: CDU 36.0% (-12.8) SPD 37.2% (+8.1) FDP 9.3% (+1.4) Greens 8.0% (-2.1) Leftists 4.9%
Turnout: predicted at 64.5% (-0.1) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
CDU 36.5% (-12.3), 42 seats SPD 37.0% (+7.9), 42 seats FDP 9.4% (+1.5), 11 seats Greens 7.7% (-3.4), 9 seats Leftists 5.0%, 6 seats *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
ARD/HR 18:45 CET: CDU 36.2% (-12.6), 41 seats SPD 37.1% (+8.0), 43 seats FDP 9.4% (+1.5), 11 seats Greens 7.8% (-2.3), 9 seats Leftists 5.0%, 6 seats *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Now official end results from the districts stream in. The large swings are across the board, in all election districts. Mini-parties: hardcore far-right party NPD got 1.5% in one district, but below 1% on average; the Pirates get a few tenths of a percent everywhere.
At ARD, you can watch Ypsilanti's victory speech from around 19h. She speaks a lovely Hessisch, lots of "Isch"-es and so on. Greatest cheers: when she declares that the success of this campaign will have results at federal level. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Arte News now has a slick young French anchor, and the tone has moved right. This evening he didn't look too pleased, and opened on the CDU victory in Lower Saxony without mentioning that it was the incumbent who won without surprise (it was as if Wulff had pulled off a real feat). He reported Hessen, but barely mentioned the defeat of Koch. Arte used to be more "neutral".
But, fuck! ZDF's last projection, from 22:51, has CDU ahead by 36.8% to 36.7%... While ARD has them dead-even at 36.7%. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Would be fun among them -- SPD supporters reacting to the exit polls:
Ypsilanti's successful campaign cut into the Green votes. Yet, if the Left gets to govern, expect Green leader Tarek Al-Wazir (whose father came from Yemen) to be its sharp tongue. We haven't showed him yet, so Here he is, with wife when voting:
*Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
This was May 2003, when Dubya, Cheney & the neocons showed whom they'd really like, by accepting Koch for a short-order visit after turning down Merkel for long. But ice-cold tactician Merkel even campaigned for Koch:
Damn. If only French politicians could copy them on that. Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
I would not be surprised if Koch does not step down. He's a pernicious [expletive] like that. But hopefully the CDU state party in Hessen is not entirely beholden.
Four of the current Minister-Presidents of the CDU are part of a political career pact (Andenpakt). A further Andenpakt member is in Merkel's government, and yet another is now President of the European Parliament. So speaking to Roland Koch is not like talking to the Governor of, say, Illinois. He was one of the most powerful politicians in German politics of the last 6-odd years.
Y:
(Hessen Left Party headquarters sees the projections) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
