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I won't be around during the day tomorrow, so I add this pre-analysis of theoretical possibilities with a nonzero chance now:

1. The Left Party doesn't make it across the 5% limit. Then it can only be one block or another:

  • 1.A CDU+FDP has (narrow) majority: looking at polls, almost certain
  • 1.B SPD+Greens have (narrow) majority

2. The Left Party makes it across the 5% limit. Then as Turambar writes, neither of the above two blocks have majority. Due to the intolerability of Koch, a government can only be assembled around the SPD.

  • 2.A SPD+Greens+Left Party: Ypsilanti declared it impossible, nor would the rest of SPD tolerate it, and methinks the Left Party realises it would be a death kiss for them
  • 2.B Traffic lights coalition (SPD[red]+FDP[yellow]+Greens): I don't think many social-liberals remained to sustain that, and the Hessen FDP recently declared they won't coalition with "this SPD"
  • 2.C Grand Coalition (SPD+CDU): is a possibility if the CDU gets rid of Koch. But Merkel recently declared no Grand Coalition in Hessen. Then agai, shafting voters on both sides, a Grand Coalition without both Koch and Ypsilanti is a possibility.
  • 2.D SPD+Greens minority government with Left Party support: not much more comfortable for all involved than 2.A, yet probably the most likely
  • 2.E new elections: who would want it?


*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sat Jan 26th, 2008 at 03:23:30 PM EST
1.2.C would be very unpleasant.
Andrea Ypsilanti's resilience to her believes must continue to have visibility.
by findmeaDoorIntoSummer on Sun Jan 27th, 2008 at 06:17:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by findmeaDoorIntoSummer on Sun Jan 27th, 2008 at 06:18:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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