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State elections in Germany: can the left come back?
|
78
comments (78 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
After the elections?
(
4.00 / 6
)
I won't be around during the day tomorrow, so I add this pre-analysis of theoretical possibilities with a nonzero chance now:
1.
The Left Party doesn't make it across the 5% limit. Then it can only be one block or another:
1.A
CDU+FDP has (narrow) majority: looking at polls, almost certain
1.B
SPD+Greens have (narrow) majority
2.
The Left Party makes it across the 5% limit. Then as Turambar writes, neither of the above two blocks have majority. Due to the intolerability of Koch, a government can only be assembled around the SPD.
2.A
SPD+Greens+Left Party: Ypsilanti declared it impossible, nor would the rest of SPD tolerate it, and methinks the Left Party realises it would be a death kiss for them
2.B
Traffic lights coalition (SPD[red]+FDP[yellow]+Greens): I don't think many social-liberals remained to sustain that, and the Hessen FDP recently declared they won't coalition with "this SPD"
2.C
Grand Coalition (SPD+CDU): is a possibility if the CDU gets rid of Koch. But Merkel recently declared no Grand Coalition in Hessen. Then agai, shafting voters on both sides, a Grand Coalition without
both
Koch and Ypsilanti is a possibility.
2.D
SPD+Greens minority government with Left Party support: not much more comfortable for all involved than 2.A, yet probably the most likely
2.E
new elections: who would want it?
*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by
DoDo
on
Sat Jan 26th, 2008 at 03:23:30 PM EST
Re: After the elections?
(
4.00 / 3
)
1.2.C would be very unpleasant.
Andrea Ypsilanti's resilience to her believes must continue to have visibility.
by
findmeaDoorIntoSummer
on
Sun Jan 27th, 2008 at 06:17:17 AM EST
[
Parent
]
2.2.C
(
4.00 / 2
)
by
findmeaDoorIntoSummer
on
Sun Jan 27th, 2008 at 06:18:20 AM EST
[
Parent
]
State elections in Germany: can the left come back?
|
78
comments (78 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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