Ypsilanti also declared that the CDU's programme is the same even without Koch, so she's not for a Grand Coalition either.
Unfortunately, now the first move is the CDU's. And I already read the idea that Koch and his former faction head, current federal defense minister Franz-Josef Jung would trade places -- if they could also engineer a coup in the SPD to make them coalition partner, they could turn defeat into victory... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I guess the short answer would be DDR, but a longer one would be appreciated. As I see it the SPD & Grüne throws away an election victory for the left if they choose grand coalition over coalition with or support from Linke. But then again, I do not live in Germany. A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
But if I may be so bold, I agree with the SPD in this particular case. The left party there has just been established. You first want to see if it can operate as a functional political unit. Policy differences aside. The left party in Bremen has already descended into petty infighting.
So, if the left party in Hessen can function as a good opposition party for four years, they can become a credible partner. Which, I think, is what they want to do themselves.
Koch will either resign and go into another career, or stay on as opposition leader.
Traffic lights coalition (SPD+FDP+Greens): shafting the non-xenophobic CDU voters who chose them as alternative on economy, and promises to not join an SPD government; and the FDP will surely demand a heavy price which may not make the SPD Left happy
Jamaica coalition (CDU+FDP+Greens): would destroy the Greens, simply impossible *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The electorate is adrift. A lot can change in four years. I would think that if the FDP has the chance right now to enter a coalition but does not take it, it will in four years have to explain that decision, too. And if the economy is not doing too badly, they will have a very difficult job at that.
On the other hand, if they join they can always claim that good performance is due to their mitigation of the irresponsible ideas of the SPD and the greens.
Of course, the FDP is going to calculate. I read that the chairman (IIRC) thinks they should prepare for an early election. But other voices in the party are making the argument that the party has to be independent about its decisions and should not exclude any partnership with the SDP or the greens beforehand.
So, again, if the FDP does not enter the government, but the government does raise some taxes that hurt the rich, the FDP's base may not appreciate it.
In Hessen it is indeed completely out of the question.
