Traffic lights coalition (SPD+FDP+Greens): shafting the non-xenophobic CDU voters who chose them as alternative on economy, and promises to not join an SPD government; and the FDP will surely demand a heavy price which may not make the SPD Left happy
Jamaica coalition (CDU+FDP+Greens): would destroy the Greens, simply impossible *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
The electorate is adrift. A lot can change in four years. I would think that if the FDP has the chance right now to enter a coalition but does not take it, it will in four years have to explain that decision, too. And if the economy is not doing too badly, they will have a very difficult job at that.
On the other hand, if they join they can always claim that good performance is due to their mitigation of the irresponsible ideas of the SPD and the greens.
Of course, the FDP is going to calculate. I read that the chairman (IIRC) thinks they should prepare for an early election. But other voices in the party are making the argument that the party has to be independent about its decisions and should not exclude any partnership with the SDP or the greens beforehand.
So, again, if the FDP does not enter the government, but the government does raise some taxes that hurt the rich, the FDP's base may not appreciate it.
In Hessen it is indeed completely out of the question.
