European Tribune - Comments - My Iowa Predictions

Well I suppose I'll just have to stay awake till midnight in snow encrusted Finland.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 12:11:45 PM EST
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Bush won't be waiting up with you. Which should make you feel a little better about it, right?

I think it's telling that the White House press secretary doesn't seem to have a clue what time the results will come in. But then, we've already established that she doesn't have a clue about much, anyway.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 12:25:44 PM EST
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Oh yes, I feel much better. Having a greater attention span than a thick plank is most comforting...

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 01:14:24 PM EST
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Well, give the guy a break. He's been meaning to finish reading "My Pet Goat" for years now...

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (michael<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 05:25:20 PM EST
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Hey, have you ever read My Pet Goat? The most Deridaful analysis of global politics since Soponge Bobe!

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 06:02:01 PM EST
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For some reason that made me think of Bush and Derrida in the same sentence.

I think my brain may have just melted.

Ow.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 06:37:06 PM EST
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You can clean brains out of the couch with a little club soda and some salt.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 06:41:40 PM EST
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I was watching Pulp Fiction the other night...

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 06:55:34 PM EST
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is this from experience?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 07:00:43 PM EST
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..And I am so not going to ask how you know this.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 07:00:51 PM EST
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Dude, you can clean everything with club soda and a little salt.

by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Fri Jan 4th, 2008 at 04:38:55 AM EST
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Well if he's not waiting up because he's going to declare himself caesar before the end of the year so it doesn't metter, that might not make me feel better.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 01:51:55 PM EST
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Even the Caesars knew they had to fear the people. I don't think anyone can provide that much panem et circenses.

Anyway, here's my prediction:

Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Obama
Clinton
Edwards

/will stay up tonight

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 03:42:40 PM EST
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Well by coincidence I need to be out in my back garden to see if I can see the Quadrantids tonight, they should peak at about 2 in the morning here. so I should be up for the result too.

Prediction

1 Huckabee
2 Romney
3 McCain

1 Obama
2 Edwards
3 Clinton

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 05:34:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow I was right!

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Jan 4th, 2008 at 06:08:38 AM EST
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Damn, I missed the Dems by 0,2% (Edwards beats Clinton) and the Reps by less than 300 votes (Thompson beats McCain). Had anybody Thompson in third place?

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Fri Jan 4th, 2008 at 10:33:43 AM EST
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I admit I don't know either. When are the results in?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 05:22:23 PM EST
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The Call to Order happens at 6:30 PM Central Time, or 12:30 AM GMT. Figure 30 minutes of miscellaneous business (eating donuts, drinking coffee, talking to neighbors -- the important stuff.) Around 7:00 (1:00 GMT) they should start the process and by 7:30 returns from the lower population/turnout precincts should begin to come in.

Interesting things to look for:

Turn-out. Heavy turn-out is required for Obama to win. (It won't happen, but you can look for it. ;0
Edwards MUST do well in the early returns. The rural precincts will be reporting first and he needs to really do well to overcome Clinton's advantage in the I-80 corridor where the big cities are.
If a surprise comes it will be noted in these early returns.
Look for turn-out numbers in Des Moines (Polk County,) Cedar Rapids (Lynn County,) and especially Iowa City (Johnson County) and Ames (Story County.) The last two are home to the Univ. of Iowa and Iowa State, repectively, and for Obama to win there must be an unusually large turn-out.
Des Moines is the state capital and center of the Establishment Dem organization. If Clinton loses this area she is scrod.
On the GOP side look for the returns from Mason City (Cerro Gordo County - IIRC,) Sioux City (Woodbury County), and Council Bluffs (Pottawattamie County.) If Huckabee wins here he wins big.
Huck-a-duck-a-bumblebee also needs to do well in the early returns.
The number 3 on the GOP side should emerge early.

by ATinNM on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 05:46:48 PM EST
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First glimpse of results (from CNN) gives Edwards the lead with 45% in 2% of the caucuses (and a large turnout)

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 08:30:55 PM EST
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