Obama 31 Edwards 27 Clinton 24
Obama's up four points since December 30th. Edwards is up three points. Clinton is down seven.
Huckabee 31 Romney 25 Thompson 11 McCain 10
From the 30th, Huck's up two. Mitt's down three. Thompson's up three. McCain's down one. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
My read of this is that the undecideds are breaking, and they're breaking for the Darkie McCrackhead and his Trial-Lawyer life partner, as I expected. Reports on the ground that I've read support that, but make of it what you will.
It's going to be an interesting night. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Word on the street is that Edwards has reached into the deeper/rural precincts, playing the numbers game. I expect his support is probably going to increase on this basis.
Common wisdom is that bad weather is bad for Obama, possibly bad for Clinton and a wash for Edwards.
Also, the 2004 edition had a ton of Republicans show up b/c they didn't have any election of their own to attend. This probably has something to do with the way things went that year.
Remember that Iowa is a midwestern, conservative, older state with a Democratic history. It's a quiet, under-stated kind of liberal place. My feeling is that a drumbeat of change won't work so well there and neither will talking down to the plebs, which is why I gotta say Edwards is in good position.
The real trouble is the backroom scheming that happens. Campaigns and dirty tricks are the real story tonight with how they move groups back and forth, etc. The on-the-ground-in-the-room dynamics are key and Edwards has done this recently in Iowa, Clinton has done it in the past and Obama's team has done it for others but he himself has not. All three are lawyers so I'm sure they know how to game a system but Edwards did a great job of it in 2004 so I'm going to guess that he knows something about how to work this particular system.
Ron Paul 10%
Ron Paul is tied with McCain and Thompson. I'd been expecting a big surprise from somewhere, and John McCain being buried by Ron Paul may be it. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
