The surprise we expected was the Obama GOTV effort paid off. CNN is reporting 227,000 Dems participated. Damn. That was unexpected.
With that all bets are now off. I want to see some polling from NH before making any prediction. Independents are the key to NH and with both McCain and Obama fishing that pond. It's who can land 'em that will do the best.
The big loser tonight was Bush and the Washington Establishment. On the GOP side Huckabee is their worst nightmare. For the Dems Clinton was soundly rejected.
Personally, I'm dismayed by Obama winning by that large a percentage. Anecdotal evidence is even saying in a ballot he would have won by double digits. Should Obama continue to trash the unions he could rip a hole in the Dem coalition, just as Huckabee threatens to do to the GOP.
On the good side, we've got ourselves a horse race.
BTW, here is the Presidential Primary Calendar.
Independents are the key to NH and with both McCain and Obama fishing that pond.
Can you vote in both primaries in NH or only one? A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
And they will be good steps -- significant, but only steps -- in the right direction to strengthening our unions and rebuilding the middle and working classes. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
The Establishment figures were clearly rejected. I was impressed that many in the media called that. Chris Matthews and the MSNBC crew really nailed it. I'm not sure what CNN saw coming, since I don't watch it.
What I think will carry Obama now is the fact that we have a clear picture of the anti-Hillary vote, and it is even stronger than I think most of us would've guessed. About 71% did not go for Hillary, and I think the results support my suspicion that if Voter X is not already with Hillary for the primaries, Voter X will not be with Hillary. If the second-tier people and the undecideds go to Obama, and if it winds up being Hillary vs Obama, the race is probably over. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
