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My Iowa Predictions
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292
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Re: My Iowa Predictions
(
4.00 / 2
)
The Call to Order happens at 6:30 PM Central Time, or 12:30 AM GMT. Figure 30 minutes of miscellaneous business (eating donuts, drinking coffee, talking to neighbors -- the important stuff.) Around 7:00 (1:00 GMT) they should start the process and by 7:30 returns from the lower population/turnout precincts should begin to come in.
Interesting things to look for:
Turn-out. Heavy turn-out is required for Obama to win. (It won't happen, but you can look for it. ;0
Edwards MUST do well in the early returns. The rural precincts will be reporting first and he needs to really do well to overcome Clinton's advantage in the I-80 corridor where the big cities are.
If a surprise comes it will be noted in these early returns.
Look for turn-out numbers in Des Moines (Polk County,) Cedar Rapids (Lynn County,) and
especially
Iowa City (Johnson County) and Ames (Story County.) The last two are home to the Univ. of Iowa and Iowa State, repectively, and for Obama to win there must be an unusually large turn-out.
Des Moines is the state capital and center of the Establishment Dem organization. If Clinton loses this area she is scrod.
On the GOP side look for the returns from Mason City (Cerro Gordo County - IIRC,) Sioux City (Woodbury County), and Council Bluffs (Pottawattamie County.) If Huckabee wins here he wins big.
Huck-a-duck-a-bumblebee also needs to do well in the early returns.
The number 3 on the GOP side should emerge early.
by
ATinNM
on
Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 05:46:48 PM EST
[
Parent
]
Re: My Iowa Predictions
(
none / 0
)
First glimpse of results (from CNN) gives Edwards the lead with 45% in 2% of the caucuses (and a large turnout)
The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by
talos
(
mihalis at gmail dot com
)
on
Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 08:30:55 PM EST
[
Parent
]
Re: My Iowa Predictions
(
none / 0
)
Correction 42 - now going to 36% at 5% with Obama at 33%
The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by
talos
(
mihalis at gmail dot com
)
on
Thu Jan 3rd, 2008 at 08:33:39 PM EST
[
Parent
]
My Iowa Predictions
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