And this is why the Iowa winner has won the nomination less than half of the time.

Actually, you think the New Englanders are bad at picking winners?

Well, only one non-incumbent (i.e. a candidate who wasn't President already at the time) who won the Iowa caucus has gone on to win the presidency.

GWBush. The Iowans sure picked a winner there.

All other candidates who won the Iowa caucus have failed to win the Presidency.