One thing to bear in mind on Florida is that 15% of Floridians are black, making them an even larger share of Dems, and they are dedicated voters like you wouldn't imagine, especially after being disenfranchised in 2000.  (Bush may have won, but he turned voting into a religion for black in South Florida.)  If AT is right, and every black voter shows up to vote for Obama, Clinton is either going to need to produce record turnout or lose badly.

I think the press is overstating Clinton's inherent strength in the beaches-and-fruity-drinks state.  The basic pieces of the Florida Democratic Party break down this way:

In the South of the state (but North of Miami), you have the (Democratic) retirees, blacks, Latinos, and middle- and working-class professionals.  (The Republican retirees live on the West Coast of the state, out near Punta Gorda [what's left of it] and Sarasota and the like.)  That's a mix of Hillary and Obama, but it probably favors Clinton.  She must win there, or she will not carry the state.

Miami is, or should be, one of Obama's three strongholds, one of the others being collectively the college town (Tallahassee, Gainesville, Pensacola, parts of Orlando, parts of Jacksonville), and the third being the Tampon Bay area.  Expect massive turnout in areas like Liberty City and around the University of Miami.

Then you've got the Jacksonville area, which is less heavy on retirees, more heavy on blacks, military personnel, and young and middle-aged workers.  Edwards must do well here to have any half-decent showing in the state.  The area is going to be inclined to Obama and Edwards.

Tallahassee is overwhelmingly young, hyper-liberal, and towards the middle of the income ladder.  This is the area I'm most comfortable making predictions on, having walked those precincts.  Tally is 1/3 black, and neighboring Gadsden is majority-black.  Jefferson is the neighbor on the other side of Leon County, and it's likely the most Edwards-friendly, being primarily farmland, but Obama gets some support near the Leon-Jefferson border where there are a few Tallahassee suburbs.  If Obama doesn't win here, he's in trouble.  Ditto Gainesville.  

The Orlando-Kissimmee area Democrats are mainly young professionals, but the area is generally very wealthy and borderline-psychopathic Republican.

The big problem for Clinton is that she's going to be relying on the retirees in a state that, contrary to the common wisdom, is not overwhelmingly a state of retirees.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin