However complaining that our commentary, in accepting conventional wisdom to the detriment of preferred truths, actually brings that CW into existence presupposes that we are, in any way, a part of the US election commentariat; we are not. We are observers, partizan maybe but we do not provide the narrative, we note it. keep to the Fen Causeway
As I've said in the past, I know my Yankees well having grown up among them.
They are back to the wall contrarians.
Edwards has to shock people in H, and I wouldn't be surprised if he did.
This region of the US is well known for pulling big surprises in the past.
Mike Dukakis, Paul Tsongas, Jerry Brown, and many more, have all won shock primaries in the recent past.
As I said in a comment above, Elizabeth Edwards seems to have nailed something: Even with the "vote for change" group split, Clinton may not have enough to win. With either Edwards or Obama out, she almost certainly hasn't got it. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
I say Obama's in the high-30s/low-40s, Clinton's in the mid-20s, Edwards is in the low-20s, and Richardson's at about 10%. The undecideds will go to Obama and Edwards again, and for Hillary, as the old saying goes, that may be all she wrote.
And she's got nothing to fight on now. Obama and Edwards (with a little help from Dodd in Philly) have laid complete waste to her campaign. And now that Edwards has clearly chosen sides in the Obama-Clinton fight, it really might be over for her.
My only hesitation about declaring her dead comes from my knowing how powerful and well-funded the Clinton Machine is. Remember, Clinton's got the best in the business behind her. Obama's got some big shots, but his ground game is, in the end, run by kids -- kids who outsmarted the old guard in Iowa, granted, but still kids. The Obama campaign comes with that danger as sort of DeanforAmerica 2.0.
All that said, TBG seems to have gotten it right on the horserace. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
It could cut either way. If they think that the Democratic race is over and vote in the Republican primary, then Obama's numbers drop. If they decided that they can't stand Hucakabee or Romney, and want McCain (an d that their vote will make a difference) because he's a secular conservative, McCain draws that support away from Obama. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
McCain needed a Clinton win in Iowa, perhaps even more than Clinton. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
In the 2004 Illinois Senate race, the Republicans did horribly because their guy was the subject of divorce proceedings where it was revealed he took his wife to strip clubs. A cardboard cut out of a child molester could have won that race against his replacement, Alan Keyes.
In Indianapolis in 2007, it looked like it was over for the Republicans after there endorsed candidate in the primary talkes about how the Democratic party was beholden to "the Jews." We laughed so hard we cried. Then, the replace hi with this roughneck ex marine Greg Ballard, who beat the incumbent Democratic mayor with a serious cash disadvantage.
It's unnatural for races to be static, and most often a sign of apathy or media bias. The latter being the clear case here. And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
In the 2004 Illinois Senate race, the Republicans did horribly because their guy was the subject of divorce proceedings where it was revealed he took his wife to strip clubs.
The Republicans angered the Star Trek base, which has been the main source of their downfall ever since...
Edwards was on This Week this morning. Richardson was on Late Edition. Elizabeth Edwards was on Hardball the other night. Clinton's been on television demonstrating her "retooling" at rallies and Q&As. Obama's gone dark (no pun intended), with the exception of a few analyst stating that he now has got to win New Hamster.
This is to say nothing of the media "bias" involved with having St John McCain apparently on for the full hours of both Face the Nation and Meet the Press, despite having come in fourth in Iowa and barely outpacing Ron Paul.
It's a tired narrative. The evil press is out to get everybody (and nobody, if you believe the Clinstones' line on Obama) somehow. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
And this is why the Iowa winner has won the nomination less than half of the time.
Actually, you think the New Englanders are bad at picking winners?
Well, only one non-incumbent (i.e. a candidate who wasn't President already at the time) who won the Iowa caucus has gone on to win the presidency.
GWBush. The Iowans sure picked a winner there.
All other candidates who won the Iowa caucus have failed to win the Presidency.
Which reminds me of certain corporate HR hiring policy: when reading resumés, there's a tendency to short list applicants whose university record posts 1st or 3rd best, to the detriment of the 2nd best; theory according to some HR folks is either you choose the first for obvious reason (second best tried hard but wasn't clever enough to be first) or you choose the 3rd who is just as good and could have been first if he/she had tried hard enough but had the sense to enjoy life, hence clever and fun.
