Clintonites will be aiming for a push-back, so whatever support she has will be very active.
The air is coming out of the Clinton campaign so fast. It may well be that Hillary, not Obama (as conventional wisdom had it), winds up being the Howard Dean of 2008. Fewer people are showing up at her events (only 1/3 capacity for Big Dawg in Bow, NH, per the NYT); her shots aren't landing; she may be running out of money (Trippi may well be onto something there); and it's just been reported that she's pushed her rat-faced chief strategist, Mark "Kill-the-Unions" Penn, out to take over the strategy herself.
Edwards also, as I mentioned the other day, really got to her in the last debate on Saturday. She was further wounded by that, and she made Edwards appear the more poised and presidential -- allegedly Hillary's strong point -- between he and her.
All signs point to Hillary simply having no answer, and imploding.
I figured her campaign would be tough, -- "No Surrender," "Bury Them All" tough -- but there are signs of desperation everywhere. Her lead is disintegrating elsewhere, I'd bet, although I obviously don't have access to the internal polling. You may well be right about Edwards doing worse than I think he will, but right now the Clinton campaign is screaming "Glass Jaw" to me.
Edwards has moved up a bit, but my bet below is on a continuing of Hillary's precipitous decline. Edwards almost doesn't have to move much, and, again, I think there may be some strategic shifting of voters by Obama on the ground. He has a massive lead now, and he could put an end to Clinton by helping Edwards without suffering any damage. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
Clinton is being bit by the ticks she brung with her.
Too late to change strategy. She wrapped herself in the Inevitability argument and now she's no longer Inevitable that dog won't hunt.
And she doesn't have anything left.
Oh, she can try to play the, "In 35 years I ain't done squat" message, as she did in the debate. That would be really funny to watch. A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run
But, in the end, it can't be denied that she did this to herself. She supported this hideous war. She didn't back down from that position. Then she ran the most conventional, Washington-ized campaign one could imagine, and, when she began to slip, she allowed her staff to launch some truly disgusting dog-whistle attacks on Obama. And she's going to pay for it by losing her shot at the White House.
So I feel bad for her in some ways, but, at the end of the day, she has only herself to blame. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
It was her big mistake to let him out of the bag this summer and during the '06 election cycle. BIG mistake.
The "strategists" shoulda let that dwag lie in fond remembrance. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
This campaign is not just about relieving the American political scene of this scurge of right wing corporate religious Republicanism. It is also about preventing another dose of Republican Lite centrist pseudoDemocratic Clintonian politics from having another go at it in the Whitehouse.
The era of Clintonian soft Republicanism is over.
So she's got the GOP fearmongering mixed with the trashing of a more progressive tax structure. That just about covers it all, and now it's just a question of how much she ruins the Clinton name.
Edwards's basic strategy -- and Joe Trippi has been very open on it -- is essentially to "hang around the drain and hope he doesn't get sucked down it." His only prayer, at this point, is for Clinton to get out, and for Obama to screw up. If Obama doesn't screw up, -- and he doesn't seem to be prone to it thus far -- Edwards is left to play for a spot in the administration (Veep, Attorney General, Secretary of Whatever, etc).
The more interesting bit to me now is the GOP side. My thinking is thus: If McCain does not win the nomination, the Republicans lose the White House. He'll probably win tonight, but if Romney somehow pulls it out, it's difficult to see where McCain goes. In my view, he's their only semi-credible candidate, being able to play against Obama on experience. Romney's trying to play the "change" card, but he lacks any credibility. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
This is a man wreathed in the garlands of past failed ideas, there is nothing of the future about him. Even his website smells of mildew. keep to the Fen Causeway
McCain can run on experience against Edwards and Obama. I don't think it'd be enough to win the day, because I lean towards the belief that he's ultimately doomed by the war.
Your Nixon comparison is one I've thought of. McCain would look old and tired next to either E or O, and it likely becomes a Kennedy-Nixon thing, but I'm just hesitant to count him out because of the cult built around him by the media.
Certainly against Clinton, I'd worry it would completely ruin us. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
I think I'd still bet on Hillary, but I'd worry. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
