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I'm not sure about the last one on that list. Wouldn't the Republicans be voting, er, Republican?

You're effectively suggesting there's a strong DINO element in the urban areas, made up of nominal Clinton Democrats, and Independents with Republican sympathies.

But all the exit polls showed the Indies breaking for Obama, and also a significant Obama lead among registered Dem voters - not up to the double digit lead from the run-up, but still enough for an easy Obama win.

Those were the exit polls, not the run-up polls. So it's hard not to see a discrepancy, especially if these graphs are correct.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 07:48:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I'm suggesting independents who voted Republican over the past 4 years might have gone and voted Democrat this time around, and chosen Clinton. Whether that is enough to bring her over the top, I don't know.

Pre-election polls are of likely voters. They don't report the number of people who say they are "not likely to vote" and they also don't report the number of Likely voters who are "undecided". At least there's nothing of the sort in the Real Clear Politics poll tables. So those are two sources of unpolled voters that could have gone for Hillary.

As for exit polls, I want to see an exit poll broken down by vote-counting method before I believe that Soros has uncovered vote-rigging in the Democratic primary.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 07:52:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One figure that was mentioned last night was that people who had decided to vote in the 24 hours previous to the election were split 60/30 towards Hillary.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 08:00:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
60/40

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 08:00:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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