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From a comment by Soros at the big orange monster:

Not sure what the source is, or if the numbers are accurate.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:03:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I could be wrong, but my sense is there's little to it in New Hampshire.  (No doubt some of the crazies in the Obama camp on dKos will jump on it, though.)  I'm guessing what happened last night was due to a whole combination of things, but a few stick out at me:

(1) the treatment of Clinton in the press after her "crying" incident, and
(2) the determination of her volunteers to fight it out after being pretty shaken up by Iowa.

Even if it were possible, I don't see why Diebold would steal it for Clinton.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:10:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well if you were truly paranoid, the one result that would make it most easy for the republicans to win, and thus require the least fixing in the national polls is Mcain vs Clinton.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:19:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even if it were possible, I don't see why Diebold would steal it for Clinton.

Cos Clinton could lose in November ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:24:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep. Clinton is very beatable. Obama and Edwards wouldn't be.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:26:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but the business world has always been reasonably comfortable with the Clintons, while it seems to be decidedly less so with the two guys most likely to win on the other side, McCain and Huckabee.

Granted, it's possible.  But, still, I think a lot of people were (rightly) offended by the behavior of much of the press in recent days.

I'm mindful of the greater probability of losing with Clinton, though, setting aside Diebold.  And with McCain winning last night, I'm very concerned we're going to see a justifiably rejuvenated, -- again, love her or hate her (and assuming there's no Diebold issue), major props to the folks on the ground for Clinton -- but even more hawkish, Hillary Clinton.

O and E had better get their shit together real quick.  If they weren't collaborating before, they'd better start.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:36:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think a lot of people were (rightly) offended by the behavior of much of the press in recent days

wtf has that got to do with who will be the better candidate for President ? Crikey, is it down to a pity vote ? Next up, richardson's new kitten dies, surge of support expected. Yech !!

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:55:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, no, I wholly agree.  When I say "rightly," I mean "rightly offended".  I'm just telling you what I think part of the reason might've been.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:57:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, something does occur to me, though:  The polling data was only wrong on Obama and Clinton.  Not Edwards, Richardson, or the Republicans.

Where's your motherf*%&ing flag pin?
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:52:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a correlation vs. causation thing. Clinton won the bigger districts which is probably where more machines were used.

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu
by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:36:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This needs to be compared to exit polls not statewide but broken down by vote-counting method. Not that Soros' data shouldn't be taken seriously, but the difference would be significant only after comparing with the exit polls.

Then, even if the difference is significant it still doesn't constitute evidence of tampering. I can imagine a socioeconomic correlation underlying this effect, going roughly like this:

(Diebold voting machines) correlate with (Republican control of local government) correlates with (certain socio-economic veriables) correlate with (support for Clinton vs. Obama)

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 07:38:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure about the last one on that list. Wouldn't the Republicans be voting, er, Republican?

You're effectively suggesting there's a strong DINO element in the urban areas, made up of nominal Clinton Democrats, and Independents with Republican sympathies.

But all the exit polls showed the Indies breaking for Obama, and also a significant Obama lead among registered Dem voters - not up to the double digit lead from the run-up, but still enough for an easy Obama win.

Those were the exit polls, not the run-up polls. So it's hard not to see a discrepancy, especially if these graphs are correct.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 07:48:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I'm suggesting independents who voted Republican over the past 4 years might have gone and voted Democrat this time around, and chosen Clinton. Whether that is enough to bring her over the top, I don't know.

Pre-election polls are of likely voters. They don't report the number of people who say they are "not likely to vote" and they also don't report the number of Likely voters who are "undecided". At least there's nothing of the sort in the Real Clear Politics poll tables. So those are two sources of unpolled voters that could have gone for Hillary.

As for exit polls, I want to see an exit poll broken down by vote-counting method before I believe that Soros has uncovered vote-rigging in the Democratic primary.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 07:52:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One figure that was mentioned last night was that people who had decided to vote in the 24 hours previous to the election were split 60/30 towards Hillary.

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 08:00:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
60/40

Life should consist in at least fifty percent pure waste of time, and the rest doing what you please.
by ceebs (bunchofwankers (at) gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 08:00:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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