foreign investors in bonds of the Irish treasury or the Irish banks, are like, totally mega-cluster-fucked
Sounds like your hedging your bets here... Vote McCain for war without gain
What happened to the CDS spread of Irish government debt relative to other Eurozone governments? A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
This is quite a high level, France looks like: 3m 0 6m 0 1y 0.23 2y 0.16 5y 0.24 7y 0.29 10y 0.25
Note however that absolute yields of sovereigns of Ireland (like all sovereigns) are still going down, as investors run for cover worldwide. They are also unexpectedly volatile. We cannot infer much from these until the dust settles, will take a few more months at least, when all banks are gone or public. Pierre
LOL A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
The first country to go will be Iceland, and the Scandinavians will bail them out. "Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
We've been hearing all about how these Icelanders with all their money have been on a buyout spree all over Scandinavia. Imagine the public reaction if we're then told "uh, dudes, those liberalist superheros on Iceland... Well, they kinda bought our stuff on borrowed money. And, well, now they can't repay. And - uh - need to be bailed out."
Not gonna happen. Nordic solidarity is not nearly as strong as I'd like it to be, even when we're talking justified aid, and our government is taking enough flak for bailing out our own banks without first checking how much it'd cost... I honestly can't see them bail out foreign banks to the tune of a substantial fraction of our GDP.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
Seriously though, the Scandinavian banks do not really seem to have insolvency issues, just liquidity issues.
But I might just have to regret what I just said. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
