Display:
My pessimism can be illustrated by the stated EU target of 30% fossil fuel reduction by 2020, and 60-80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, with the following graph:

I.e. by 2020 we are looking to replace all electricity generation from fossils (+ a bit more) by 'something else'. (The electricity plus waste in the generation process (Waste E.P.) is about equal to the reductions required.) I have seen no policy recommendations that seems to adequately address this.
(And lets make a small note that the 'Renewable' category here covers primarily wood burning and industrial waste burning. Wind is so small we can't even see it...)
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 03:35:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given the losses in converting thermal energy sources into usable energy, these numbers are somewhat misleading.

If you look at wind in terms of percentage of final consumption, it looks better.

And that ignores the broader point that wind has moved from nowhere to visible in just a few years, and is now only reaching the "statistically significant" stage - but it is still keeping its nice growth rates, which means that it will rapidly claim a bigger chunk of final energy use.

EWEA conservatively estimates that 40% of new installed capacity in Europe by 2030 will be wind, just like in the current decade. That requires almost no growth in yearly installations.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 09:44:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is why I divided the Fossil->Electricity into Energy output and Waste. One would only need to replace the bit actually produced, of course. This is still about the same size as non-fossil energy in 2006. I.e. All coal, oil, and gas fired electricity generating plants would have to be replaced, and direct use and transportation can not increase. (Or one of those two reduced and some fossil generation kept.)

2006 are the freshest numbers I could get from Eurostat. I would love to have newer ones, but these ones to me still say daunting. Not impossible by a long shot, but needing real policy support rather than just targets.

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 10:27:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series