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Obviously that's MarekNYC's work.  It was slightly McCain, then Marek showed up and turned it around.

:-)

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 12:46:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's a fun set of figures for ya: 708,823 people have registered to vote in North Carolina between January 1st and October 8th.  Of those, 45.48% are Dems, 22.78% are Reps, and the rest are Indies and Libertarians.

37% were between the ages of 18 and 25.  30% were black (compared with ~20% of the state population per the Census Bureau).

Massive movements.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 01:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hmm quick run through of calculations, if you had 100% turnout on those figures, a 66% obama vote amongst the young and a 90% Obama vote amongst Black voters, (I'm sure I've seen that proportion somewhere) then he's only going to need 17% of the other voters, (Including those non black, non youthful democrats)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 01:40:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Quick and dirty: Obama's going to get 95% of the black vote under the worst-case scenario, I'd guess.  90% is the standard-issue share for a Democrat in the post-Clinton Era.  97% or 98% is not unlikely.

He needs about 35-37% of the white vote in NC to win it in that scenario.  Right now he's running at about 37-39% in pre-Wachovia Collapse polling, and I suspect the number will rise a bit.  At 40%, it's over.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 01:43:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dole is out of money.  She blew through $3 million and is now having to self-finance.
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 10:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, just read that.

Hi-larious.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 10:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking like a good chance of a 7 seat gain in the Senate, a 'maybe' in Minnesota, and I don't know where the other 2 can come from.  
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 11:14:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cook just updated the Georgia race to toss-up, which usually means we're a few weeks ahead of that, putting Martin in the lead now.  I kind of think we're going to get that seat.  I still think it's more likely McCain wins Georgia than not, but Obama will get close enough to get Martin what he needs.

I think we're going to get Minnesota.  Three of the last four polls have Franken in the lead, and the mo is with him.

That makes nine.  Need either Mississippi or Kentucky to get to the Lieberman-proof, 60-seat Congress.  Running the table on MS, GA, and KY gets us 61+Holy Joe.

For the first time, I'm starting to think we may just get those 60 seats.

Two races to watch now: Maine and Texas.  The DSCC's pouring cash into Maine.  Seem to be on the verge of falling into single digits.  Texas is back in single digits too.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 11:28:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm hopeful for Minnesota.  Franken seems to have (finally) hit his stride; I'd like to see some distance between him and Coleman before getting all worked up.

If Georgia goes I wonder about Mississippi?  Very similar demographics and dynamics working there.  

McConnell is in real trouble in Kentucky.  He's down to pure mud and slime and every so slowly Lunsford seems to be catching up.  

I think I said I don't understand why Snowe is doing so well in Maine.  Still don't.  :-)

I've read the RNC was sitting on a chunk of change they could throw into Senate/House races at the last minute.  They've got to decide if they are going to cut McCain loose and try to support on-the-edge candidates in the House and Senate.  That's a bit of a problem as cutting McCain loose will get lots of media attention which will hurt GOP down-ticket candidates by lowering turn-out.  If they keep propping-up McCain's advertising they won't have any money to try and play defense later.  So damned if they do, damned if they don't.

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 11:51:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think they're going to cut McCain loose if something magical doesn't happen right about...now.  I mean, what are they supposed to do -- keep hanging their hats on the John Zogby Special Kind of Stupid Drunken Frat Party Dart Game Tracking Poll?  Even the magic Battleground poll luvs it sum majic Negro now, and they'd been clinging to that one for weeks when that evil liberal little shit Rasmussen sold them out.

Or something.

Seriously, I don't see the logic in putting the money on McCain.  Unless things shift strongly, it's like going down to the track to bet on a three-legged dachshund against the greyhound.

Losing the Senate seats and the White House would be devastating to them.  The Senate races are closer.  Bet on the Senate races.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 12:05:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
CW says the GOP is facing a minimum of 17 in the House and the White House.  Dems winning 60 Senate seats destroys the GOP for the next 2 years.  

I agree.  The best move is to throw the money into the Senate races.

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 12:18:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"minimum lose of"
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 12:19:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"minimum losS of," even ;)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 12:20:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(LOL)
by ATinNM on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 12:25:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
loss, loose, lose, less, loses, loess, lass ...

somewhere in there is the word I want.

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 12:29:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you. Actually I think the ground game does make a bit of a difference. We've just been told the details of our nightmarish but hopefully difference making election weekend. Unfortunately it seems the resources don't include a dose of meth to keep us from zombifying by Tuesday.
by MarekNYC on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 01:22:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I apparently stand corrected after having said to you that your time in Virginia would be more valuable.  Over the last week or two, especially now with this poll, I've been starting to think Obama will win Missouri.  He's running up absolutely crushing margins in St Louis and Kansas City, and he ain't doing too badly in "Missouruh" either.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 01:36:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's been the key for Democratic wins in Missouri for as long as I can remember.  Keep the losses in the hinterland to a minimum and rack up the win in St. Lou and KC.
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 10:45:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm flabbergasted by how well (comparatively speaking) this poll shows him doing in SW Missouri - John Ashcroft/Roy Blunt territory.   I mean, he's not going to win there but if he can stay at 40% the cities will easily make up the rest for him.

Rasmussen poll shows it tighter - but he's still ahead.  

I'm trying not to get greedy but I can't remember the last time we had an election in Missouri that wasn't close.  

by Maryb2004 on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 11:11:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ras showing it close is a good sign given the tendencies of his polls.  I'm going to be interested to see what PPP has to say on it tomorrow, as well as their take on NC.

I suspect it'll be slightly tighter than SUSA in MO and maybe a 5-point lead for Obama in NC (the 6-pointer from a week or two ago struck be as too generous, but I suspect a 4- or 5-point lead is not out of the realm of possibility given Virginia).

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 11:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Getting 40% in the SW is AMAZING.  

Columbia (U of M) should also go hot for Obama in an otherwise Red Sea.  

From afar it looks like the McCaskill coalition plus.

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 11:34:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Think ya have to go to Iowa for the meth though.

Just FYI.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 10:56:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good job!  It's true.  You arrived and the polls jumped.

Can you come back in 2010 when we want to defeat Kit Bond?

by Maryb2004 on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 11:08:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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