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Did anyone catch Steinbrück's commentary on tagesthemen heute Abend?  I couldn't understand all of it, but i had the strange impression that i basically, knowing he's a politician, trusted what he was saying.  I thought he basically said the gov was only injecting a relatively small amount of funds directly, 20B€, 80b€ in reserve, and the rest only as "guarantee" to get the credit flowing again.  I thought he said we won't saddle our children with these costs, but i didn't get how.

But a world of difference between him and, well, some others.  Das Erste followed with nice reporting on Krugman's prize.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 04:41:01 PM EST
What I read at tagestehmen (still watching the video):

  • a pool of €400 billion for credit guarantees for interbank loans, explicitely grounded in the circumstance that banks don't trust each other
  • the risk in this is estimated at 5%, which is to be covered with an €20 billion package
  • a further €80 billion for potential capital injections, which can take the form of non-voting stocks, normal stocks, ands participation certificates[what's that?]

The package is to be provided until the end of 2009 -- and that not for free, not automatically, and with preconditions for banks: the finance minister will have the remit to decide in detail and case-by-case what constitutes a proof of proper business conduct -- involving a limitation of manager renumeration.

The package is to be financed by making higher debts, but (Swedish model) the eventual purchased stocks are to be sold later if the economy turns around.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:15:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They ask a think thank guy, but before he can say anything, the talking head states it outright, with emphasis, that the think thank is close to employers.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
and right now Herr Merz is getting his head handed to him on Beckmann.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Schumann, on the big German TV station, reminds everyone that Paulson comes from Goldman Sachs, as did Rubin before him.  He says that everyone forgets the effects from the "shadow banking system," which has yet to fall, but it's coming.  This major TV sendung  uses words like casino and house of cards.  Cool.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:25:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Live-blog!

(Don't have ARD, sadly, and they don't live-stream)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:26:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was amazing to me, that a thread on ET would appear as a conversation on top German television.  I had the feeling that J was making his points of network tv, supported by an eminence grise from the CDU! who spoke of the difference in salary between the people who brought us to our knees and the people who make our things for us.

i wish i could understand the language better, i'd make a better post.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:55:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh, I was listening to yesterday's tagesthemen...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, i meant two hours ago.  What a difference in intelligence between German and amurkan mass media.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I meant I was watching the video at the website thiking it's today's, but it was yesterdays. However, now they have today's up, and I am watching it.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:30:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She really made Steinbrück sweat...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:39:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but he gave real answers, if i got it right.

But the Beckmann-Merz thing was awesome.  Given the MSM format... That they gave a voice to Schumann was powerful, and he was prepared.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:53:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, Steinbrück gave real answers on policy, but he also tried to tell the media to shut up and help communicate the government's plan instead, in no uncertain terms; and of course avoided admitting that he was repeatedly wrong in his claims of no crisis before. What he could have but didn't say is how the whole programme could be self-paying for the tax-payer on the long run.

I'm trying to watch the Beckmann-Merz video right now, but streaming broke off repeatedly.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 05:06:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The real occasion is his new book "Dare More Capitalism", and Beckmann mocks him ("Haven't you tried to change the title before publication?").

Merz does submit that the FED followed a policy of cheap money leading to the mortgage crisis, and that there are systemic problems in the US financial system -- and claims he said so a year ago (Beckmann: "Why has no one listened to you?"), and points at Basel II ("you surely don't know what's that").

Well said: Merz praises the Euro and claims the crisis would have been worse without.

Defends German bank CEOs (and gets nervous going into it: calls Beckmann Beckstein...) as good managers...

Beckmann pushes him on greed ("they don't care about common good"), Merz recounts the dogma: 'core of market economy: manage greed to work for the common good'. Beckmann: "So if the finance system must be saved by the state, your world must be truly disturbed, where are the market's self-healing forces you believe in?" Merz goes on by suggesting more/better regulation.

Beckmann still pushes him on the responsiblity of managers, Merz claims there is a full-range manager liability in Germany -- Beckmann: "But it failed."

(cont.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 06:11:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Merz is put in the position to give support to every state move -- even on not letting banks collapse to save clients.

Merz goes on about economic cycles, Beckstein: "but what if profits are always privatised and losses socialised?", but Merz wiggles free.

Beckmann pushes him, if he is so a big financial expert, why doesn't his party use his talent? "You have to ask others about that"... for further minutes Beckmann grills him about the relationship with Merkel.

Merz goes on about state spending, mentioning the healthcare and retirement funds, Beckmann: "Your solution: private, private, private?"

Beckmann: "Where have you invested your own money? Derivates? Have you been risk-loving?" Merz: "Nnno, I bought stocks, and sold them at the right time... eeeh... and even re-purchased some..." [big smile] Beckmann pushes him on about the losses of small investors.

(cont. with Geißler & Schumann)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 06:28:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Geißler: "Merz belongs to the brave people. Facts won't make him spooked." Re Martin, he does say that social market economy was always the CDU's economic policy rather than neoliberal market economy.

Schumacher: problem was that more than 50% of banking happened beyond the regulated system, which came because the regulators' independence was no more due to personal.

Schumacher: "Hank Paulson was boss of Goldman Sachs." Merz: "But the problems started before Paulson!" Schumacher: "Yes, but before Paulson, there was Bob Rubin, who also came from Goldman Sachs."

Schumacher quotes Walter Eugen an ideological founder of German social market economy: "The problem is nor abuse if economic power, the problem is economic power." Meaning, the ballooning financial world gained too much power over politics.

Merz tries to tell Geißler that Germany's success in his time in the eigthies was because of supply-side economics, he counters (in the tone of an old teacher) that that was combined with an extension in the social systems, which wasn't done in the East after Reunification.

(cont.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 06:49:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Schumann lists German examples of personal entwinement between financial regulation and financial companies, Beckmann hits out at Merz by asking him where he has his job now, Merz tries to defend swapping jobs between regulators and companies, but he really sweats and makes grimaces.

Schumann criticises the €20 billion earmarket for actual pay-outs for from credit guarantees (e.g. for failed credits) -- who pays for it, why everyone instead of those who created the mess via a special tax?... and compares the sum to the annual payout for all receivers of the combined (and reduced) social and long-term unemployment benefits under Harz-IV: €22 billion. Merz counters: the state debt payments are even higher, we leave this behind for our children -- Schumann: "We also leave behind the wealth created by investing those credits!"

Geißler says it would have been nice if Merz et al would have talked two years ago like he does now...

Schumann returns to the point about too much power in the hands of financial CEOs just from the size of their paychecks (where the top 20 hedge fond managers with their annual renumerations of €600 million[!] are far above even the boss of Deutsche Bank), and attacks Merz as part of the problem in his law firm serving the private equity companies, Merz sweats but says his voters know where he works, but then a long controversy follows about his earlier legal protest against parliament's demand to publish his clients.

(cont.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 07:10:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With the current bailout packages in place, what do you except in one year?

Geißler: he thinks it depends on whether new regulations stop banks from "re-starting the gambling". Emphasizes internationality, he is not against globalisation but wants "politics to get on eye level again" with economic players.

In a clip from an earlier show, former chancellor Helmut Schmidt criticises the G7, says it's not enough and China, Brazil and others should be involved, Merz needs forced to agree. He also denies he'd disagree with Geißler's leftist thematisation of Harz-IV taking away a few euros more from poor people while HypoRealEastete's manager will go into retirement with €34,000/month.

Big mess about whether warnings were heeded in Europe (Merz claims Basel II was just about that, Schumann says it was late and not regulating hedge fonds et al.)

Schumann all Keynesian: throttling of investment should be stopped with big state investment programme, especially in energy sector, and prevent jump of joblessness.

Geißler: "The capitalist system IS - NOT - the sytem of the future. That must be said to the people."

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 07:25:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow DoDo.  Thanks so much for giving such a fine highlight translation.  I'd known this interview was important, and i'm glad to see i understood a fair chunk, but there was much that i missed, which you have summed up so well here.

I guess the takeaway point is that the framing window is certainly in flux.  Given what J wrote about Gideon Rachman on the FP, here's an example where the lies couldn't take hold in a large media showing.  The show also made me glad to be in Germany.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 08:11:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is some own commentary.

From a rhetorical poit of view, I saw Merz clearly forced into a corner and outclassed (then again, it was 1:3). Beckmann, Geißler and Schumann brought up almost all the important points and talking points on the issue. As you say, the framing is on the move when moderators talk stuff like Left Party leaders in parliament and Merz has to nod in agreement.

On the other hand, all three tried to get Merz on speaking up about the structural problems earlier -- but couldn't really nail him. But this is important: had Merz realised the gravity of the problem, it wouldn't have been something for a book or drawn-out Basel-II negotiations, but loud proclamations to the media that something must be done, now.

On a more general level, what lacked was a real confrontation: in the end, Merz's posture was "but I want those things, too, don't put things in my mouth!". I had liked if at least Beckmann had actually read Merz's book and confronted him with a selection of his own theses, in addition to burning general neolib talking points and scoring minor points like Rubin being of Goldman Sachs too.

Finally, a small detail: in the beginning, there was a semantical debate cut short by Beckmann about the word "Neoliberal". In fact the same debate I recall having with Martin when he was fresh on ET: Merz reminded people that half a century ago, just the inventors of social market liberalism called themselves "Neoliberal". Curiously, despite his age, Geißler was obviously unaware of this (e.g. Beckmann saved him from embarrassment), and couldn't answer that "Neo"-anything descriptors are repeatedly re-used for the newest versions of whatever even if totally unrelated.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 10:06:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
of transcribing these exchanges should not be stuck in a quasi-dead thread: I think it's worth turning into a diary.

Please?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 11:09:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I will soon board my train for home, but can do in the evening.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 11:28:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Done.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 06:19:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Merz goes on about economic cycles, Beckstein:

LOL, Merz infected me, too...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 11:19:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Would one of you diary this so poor old me will understand what and who the heck you're talking about?

Herr Mertz?  

Beckmann?

And why is the former being handed his head by the latter a good/bad thing?

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Beckmann is just a late night political talk show master. Friedrich Merz is a (former) big guy in the conservative CDU (he is young -- member of the Andenpakt--, but left leadership positions after Merkel successfully blocked his career advance). He was the party's self-styled tax and finance expert, championing economic-liberal causes in the CDU (book title: "Dare More Capitalism").



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Schumann was the guy whose book a while back predicted the holes in global capitalism.  Strangely, the eminence grise from Merz's own party supported Schumann's attack at merz's version of capitalism.  By the end, merz was expounding about how the German version involved much more regulation!

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:17:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Danke.
by ATinNM on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:28:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The eminence grise mentioned anonymously by Crazy Horse is Heiner Geißler, who used to be Helmut Kohl's pit bull, but slowly moved to the left edge of the CDU: he even joined ATTAC, the Tobin-tax-demanding flagship of the altermondialist (misnomer: 'anti-globalisation') movement.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:42:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but slowly moved to the left edge of the CDU
Geissler himself denies any move in his position - pretty credible. His hard core image was mainly due to his stance in the cold war, especially issues around the RAF (I think it is Bader-Meinhof gang in English, but is the acronym of Red Army Fraction) and nuclear weapons.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:52:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Geißler struck me as "old enough to say what needs to be said, consequences be damned."  There were times when i thought he was lecturing Merz, always with a smile at the corners of his eyes (like he was also relishing his moment in the sun.)  But even Beckmann, hostly duties aside, seemed to question Merz's capitalism.

Would that debates like this occur during the amurkan presidential Wahlkampf.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 07:01:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let Ralph Nader and Cyntia McKinney take part in the debate, then yes.

I'm sometimes surprised that the US contains quite a number of her most prominent critics, e.g. Noam Chomsky. It seems just that most media managers are full of fear to risk to invite people, who are far off the main stream. Some of the stronger critics make kind of comedy - like a king's jester, who dares to say, what others aren't allowed to say.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 07:28:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Geissler himself denies any move in his position - pretty credible.

Well, yes, on the issues, it's more that his party moved right on the economy (starting already under Kohl). However, in his Cold Warrior years, he did include leftist intellectuals and even SPD figures in his attacks (presaging the Red Socks campaign) -- while presently, he not only dared to be on the same platform with them, but AFAIK he is an advocate of a pragmatic approach to the Left Party.

RAF (I think it is Bader-Meinhof gang in English

Yes, but I often emphasize that that's a misnomer. The phrase was coined by the Bild tabloid (the German equivalent of the Sun), but Meinhof was only the speaker for the first generation (Baader's girlfriend Ensslin was the real co-leader), and the activity of the Second and Third Generations was much more serious and bloody. However, it was pointed out to me that the real name RAF was probably not used because that acronym is already in use: for the Royal Air Force of the UK.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 05:35:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the activity of the Second and Third Generations was much more serious and bloody.

Also: by calling Baader & co a gang, Bild also tried to underplay their importance -- but RAF became a 'professional' terrorist organisation with international contacts and a bloody trail, and with this term, English-speakers may not fully contemplate how serious Germany's experience of terrorism was. (At least, the warmongers accusing Europe of cluelessness and cowardice over terrorism displayed such ignorance.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 05:43:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, a group, that one can successfully fight more or less within the law, can't be real terrorists. Real terrorists you can only be fought with wars, torture camps, and indefinit detention on the word of the commander in chief. IRA and ETA do not count as well. These organisations have goals. Real terrorists hate us for our freedom.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 06:13:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interview with Harald Schumann
Size of German rescue package
A Genussschein (what dodo translated as 'participation certificates') is a paper with a partially fixed interest rate and a partially dependend on the performance of the company interest rate. E.g. the paper promises 6% return per year plus e.g. up to 4% extra depending on the performance of the company.

The CDU old man on Beckman was Heiner  Geissler. And no, it is not at all surprising that Geissler and Merz have different opinions about some issues. Geissler, who is a member of attac, is economically far left in the CDU - but was as some others, who today critisise some elements of the actual system strictly against the USSR.

It is not totally clear why Merz left, but probably not only the inner party personality power struggle, but as well the issues were too far away of his vision.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:47:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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