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Assume a collection of agents taking actions with uncertain payoffs.

Assume the average payoff is 103% (allowing for economic growth) and that the payoff distribution extends down to 0% (ruin).

Assume the agents can place more distinct bets the more money they have. (Assuming a nonzero smallest bet size suffices)

Then the wealthier players can diversify their variance away and capture the 103%. The less wealthy players cannot and are more likely to go bust.

If the average payoff is less than 100% so the game is a loss to players, and you must play, it is known that diversification doesn't work because you want to have sufficient variance to be able to have payoffs about 100% some of the time.

Is that it? The proofs are left as an exercise for the (bored) reader.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 16th, 2008 at 10:15:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nope.  I have other ideas.  Will explain later but this is looking like the germ for a computerized game for kids/adults.  Are there such things already on the market?

More later.  Have to hit the sack, rest my back (I'm a budding poet).

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Oct 16th, 2008 at 12:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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