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Got to be an outlier.  Too weird to accept based on Missouri's electoral history of close elections.

If it's true and holds, Mississippi and Georgia aren't far behind, Indiana will definitely flip, Obama is looking at 400+ EVs, and I'll have to go have a quiet lie down.

This is not the election map to which I've grown accustomed.

What the hell is going on out there?

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 11:58:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not an outlier.  I think it's too generous, but taking MoE into account it's about right.  I suspect Missouri is running about O50-47/48M right now.

Indiana and Ohio move very slowly.  I don't think Indiana's going to come through in the end.  I've been skeptical of Ohio all year, even though I'm leaning towards a small win for Obama simply because of the blowouts in Michigan and Pennsylvania coupled with a good few polls showing Obama with a decent lead in OH.

Speaking of Ohio...

BIG NEWS: The Supreme Court has thrown out the GOP's attempt to suppress the vote in Ohio.  I'm curious to see how the vote broke down.  Liberal justices + Kennedy?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 12:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Early voting numbers are looking good in both Georgia and NC.

NC first: One day of early voting, and the Tar Heels are already up to 174,000.  52% are Dems (compared with 45% of registered voters), 32% Reps (compared with 32% of RVs), 16% Indies (compared with 22% of RVs).  25.8% are black (compared with 21% of RVs).

Similar pattern in Georgia.  Black folks are 35.8% of the 636,000 voters so far.  So, in both cases, we're seeing black folks running 5-7 points ahead of their proportion of RVs.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 12:45:02 PM EST
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