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Hello. Sitting here at my host's place waiting for a ride. I normally bike in but it's pouring. Obama will be speaking at KC tomorrow and we're all going to see him. Jill Biden will be in the office on Sun. Weekends are prime canvass time and this will seriously screw our numbers. Fun recent overheard conversation between two young (late teen) interns in the office on religion - does Catholicism provide a proper 'god high' or do you need the fainting and speaking in tounges of pentacostalism to truly feel connected to god. The girl arguing the latter is very liberal, including on social issues. One rather surprising thing I've run into here are pentacostals who are strongly feminist, pro-choice, pro gay marriage, pro left wing econ policies, and otherwise resemble the secular liberals I meet in NYC, both in views on policy and personal life, but are born again pentacostal. Didn't know they existed.

I slept in and took a morning off yesterday after feeling sick the night before. Asked the boss if I can go home early that night. Later thought - it's ten fifteen at night, I'm a volunteer, and I'm asking if it's ok if I leave 'early'. Another eighteen days.

by MarekNYC on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 11:25:56 AM EST
Did you catch the new Ras poll out of Missouri?  O52-46M.  In a Rasmussen poll.  Lookin' good.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 11:37:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Got to be an outlier.  Too weird to accept based on Missouri's electoral history of close elections.

If it's true and holds, Mississippi and Georgia aren't far behind, Indiana will definitely flip, Obama is looking at 400+ EVs, and I'll have to go have a quiet lie down.

This is not the election map to which I've grown accustomed.

What the hell is going on out there?

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 11:58:48 AM EST
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Not an outlier.  I think it's too generous, but taking MoE into account it's about right.  I suspect Missouri is running about O50-47/48M right now.

Indiana and Ohio move very slowly.  I don't think Indiana's going to come through in the end.  I've been skeptical of Ohio all year, even though I'm leaning towards a small win for Obama simply because of the blowouts in Michigan and Pennsylvania coupled with a good few polls showing Obama with a decent lead in OH.

Speaking of Ohio...

BIG NEWS: The Supreme Court has thrown out the GOP's attempt to suppress the vote in Ohio.  I'm curious to see how the vote broke down.  Liberal justices + Kennedy?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 12:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Early voting numbers are looking good in both Georgia and NC.

NC first: One day of early voting, and the Tar Heels are already up to 174,000.  52% are Dems (compared with 45% of registered voters), 32% Reps (compared with 32% of RVs), 16% Indies (compared with 22% of RVs).  25.8% are black (compared with 21% of RVs).

Similar pattern in Georgia.  Black folks are 35.8% of the 636,000 voters so far.  So, in both cases, we're seeing black folks running 5-7 points ahead of their proportion of RVs.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 12:45:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Life's a beach ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 03:22:49 PM EST
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By the way, yes, I've met left-wing Pentacostals.  It's really weird.  Almost every Pentacostal I've ever met was extreme-right, to the point that Pat Robertson looks like Michael Moore next to them.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 11:44:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Membership of a group is not determinative of the individuals comprising that group.  

Even Pentacostals have trailing-edge members that drift into sanity.  :-)

by ATinNM on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 12:02:16 PM EST
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Bell curve identity politics?

You could probably play bell curve identity pin ball - drop in a meme or a talking point just so and it will spend the next few weeks ricocheting around pulling floaters out of some groups and into other groups.

I suppose this isn't far from what happens already, but if you had some cool graphics and bells it would be easier to get the high score.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 12:15:58 PM EST
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Well, okay, that's true, but the primary experience I've had with a Pentacostal -- think I've told this story before -- was this preacher who used to stand on campus and yell at us between classes.  Called all the girls "whores" and shouted at us for our "demon drink and drugs and sex" and stuff (which, of course, only got people to cheer for booze, drugs and sex).

Until he called the wrong guy's girlfriend a whore and got hit in the face with a large Styrofoam cup of coke.  Everybody laughed.  Even the cops got a kick out of it and refused to do anything.  ("Well, ya called his girl a whore!")  Didn't see him again after that.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sat Oct 18th, 2008 at 07:18:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nate Silver discussed the apparent manipulation going on at Intrade, in which a rogue investor was inflating McCain futures.  CQ Politics is reporting that, after an investigation by the company, Intrade has confirmed it.

Apparently it's a firm protecting other positions and hedging other investments, whatever that means.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 12:31:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One rather surprising thing I've run into here are pentacostals who are strongly feminist, pro-choice, pro gay marriage, pro left wing econ policies, and otherwise resemble the secular liberals I meet in NYC, both in views on policy and personal life, but are born again pentacostal. Didn't know they existed.
Welcome to the Heartland, Marek!  "There are stranger things...."  Pentacostals are essentially estatic mystics who go for direct spiritual experience.  Thus, while most might formally think that they are literalist-fundamentalists, they give primacy to their direct experience and are therefore much more malleable.  Some of the Pentacostals were among the first in this region, including Arkansas and Oklahoma, to integrate their congregations.  Baptists are a different story.  A recent quote from the Arkansas Democrat Gazette will give you a bit of the flavor. The subject is ongoing managerial disfunction at the Arkansas Cosmetology Board:
Rep. Daryl Pace, R_Siloam Springs....Pace described the board as the "biggest bunch of not-getting-along people I've ever encountered except for my own Baptist Chruch."
Local humor, to boot.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 01:00:53 PM EST
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I'd say 20% of evangelicals I've met are of the left-wing sort. I mean, it is possible to actually read jesus' message in the bible, which does not include, well, pretty much anything social conservatives push for.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 02:03:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course you can go to the old testament for all the sociopathic god-stuff you'll ever need.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Fri Oct 17th, 2008 at 04:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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