Are there any signs of the political system consolidating into a smaller number of significant parties? With western European party systems I find it easier to understand where each political tendency is coming from. Eastern European party systems seem much more fluid.
It may be that it will take a generation of democratic politics for strong party loyalties to develop. This was the experience of West Germany after the second world war. However in the present era party ties seem to be loosening in most long established democracies. Is that a phenomenon which is preventing the formation of large mass parties, with a reliable voter base, in Eastern Europe?
In post-'communist' countries, failure in government and personal differences or rivalry between prominent party leaders can still destroy a party. If you check das monde's previous election diary, you'll see that the multitude of Lithuanian parties do fall into some major groups, but there were lots of splits. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Existing populist parties need to consolidate to get second chances, I think. Or some may join socialdemocrats.
Some voter loyalty is visible, as core sympathies and antipathies towards the two main parties are well defined. Conservatives typically win with low voter turnout, meaning that they do not really gather much extra support, rahter enough "leftish" voters stay home. On the other turn, Homeland Union probably failed in 2000 for a similar silent reason.
Among problems of Lithuania, they point out to:
GDP slowdown; high inflation; high energy prices; high social differentiation;
Am I misinterpreting, or is this a partial sign of the failure of the centre-left to address inequalities?
