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I would expect the Nordic Council to step in...or a 'union' with Norway, perhaps...?  
by Solveig (link2ageataol.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 04:22:12 PM EST
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Confession: knowledge of Icelandic public opinion is out of date.  From what I knew (30 years ago!) Norway might be able to pull it off.  Icelandic history under foreign "unions" is not good (= disastrous.)  Countering that is the high regard for Norway in Iceland -- at least there used to be.

As Helen also noted, without the money to purchase oil to fuel their fishing fleet Iceland is in a heap of trouble.  Norway is in the position to help with that.

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 08:31:33 PM EST
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I have never been to Iceland, but I know that the relationship with Norwegians is extensive and friendly - on all levels.  

I'm sure the Norwegians could at least keep their fishing boat operating :-) - but there is more to Iceland than fishing boats, and I'm sure the Norwegian oil/power industry has its eyes on opportunities in Iceland:

Energy in Iceland

Iceland is the only country in Western Europe that still has large resources of competitively priced hydroelectric power and geothermal energy remaining to be harnessed. Although electricity consumption per capita in Iceland is second to none in the world, only a fraction of the country's energy potential has been tapped. Iceland is therefore the only country in Western Europe that still has large sources of competitively priced hydroelectric power and geothermal energy remaining to be harnessed.
 

I'm not worried about the people of Iceland - they will survive...the resilience of this people will take them through this, and they will laugh and tell 'sagas' about the madness of it all to their grandchildren.  

As for a possible 'union' with Norway, I expect Iceland would see that as preferable to joining the EU :-)

by Solveig (link2ageataol.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 09:37:52 PM EST
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Island has the potential to become the 22nd Century equivalent of Saudi Arabia with all the untapped hydro, thermal, and wind power sitting around.  Most of the island is, to put it charitably, useless for anything BUT thermal or wind power plants.  It is geologically active so I'm not sure how the hydro part could be economically tapped.  Outside my pay-grade, to be frank.

If it comes down to a XOR choice between the EU and Norway I expect the decision will be Norway.  There is an obvious 'match' between the Islandic and Norwegian fishing lobbies, tho' may not a progressive match :-).  Either way the prospect of the Islander's fishing grounds coming under control of the Japanese zaibatsu¹, say, fills me with horror.  It's one of the few fishing grounds that hasn't been totally hosed by modern "Resource Management" (scream.)

Love the sögur, BTW.  Just finished reading Morkinsknna last week.

¹  Something on the order of them buying up the Trondelag for its agricultural export potential

by ATinNM on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 10:57:25 PM EST
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As it is difficult to transport surplus energy from Iceland to any conceivable foreign market, they should be able to use geo-thermal and other renewables to run energy intensive operations such as refining of aluminum and other metallurgical operations.  Anything where bottom dollar energy costs are key.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 01:25:54 AM EST
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There are 3 aluminum smelters operating in Iceland with several more planned.  

Icelanders, being Icelanders, are having a huge argument about the ecological impact (a BIG deal in Iceland, given their natural history) as well as the economy trade offs.

by ATinNM on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 02:04:15 AM EST
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