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The problem is, the CDS spread of US sovereign is not meaningful : there is no credible seller of insurance against such armageddon, and equally few willing buyers of such crap.

You'd probably better off computing the stripped-bonds spread, which has ample liquidity in both cases I think. But again, it may not be meaningful right now, with mass stampedes in the money markets.

Wait a few more months to draw conclusions. I don't think Exxon could have a better rate than the US, at least no for very long, because of the following macro-arbitrage argument: if the liability is in USD, exxon will pay it in the US, where its legel entities would be seized/taxed to death if they still had an oil rent there, and the federal government was broke. liabilities denominated in other currencies / from non-US subsidiaries are another matter, but I don't think the pool of exxon bonds has many like these.

Pierre

by Pierre on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 07:56:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
its legel entities would be seized/taxed to death if they still had an oil rent there, and the federal government was broke.

You think the US government believes the interests of the American people to be more important than the interests of Exxon Mobil? ;)

(Only half joking... sigh.)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 08:09:07 AM EST
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