European Tribune - Comments - Is the Euro doomed, too?

Is the Euro doomed, too? | 94 comments (94 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Holding (watching) money is not "neutral"...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 08:15:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So, who more thinks treasuries are overvalued? The world is full of great companies which won't go bust, with much better paying corporate debt.

Sure, liquidity might be bad, but if you are going to hold the bond to maturity that doesn't matter.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 08:17:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 0)

I think you're right about that.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 08:46:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 1)

That's a 4% (annualised) default rate... Ouch!

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 08:23:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 1)

Honestly, not so high. How what odds would you want on none of the 16 largest UK banks failing during the next year ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 11:43:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 0)

Oh, the implied odds of some of the 16 banks failing is 48% (annualised).

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 12:06:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 0)

Well, sounds lowish to me... (and, since the LIBOR excludes the lowest quartile, one of those banks is probably borrowing at above of a 16th chance to fail...)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 12:10:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 0)

True, LIBOR is the average of the middle 8 of the 16... And we suspect the banks understate their borrowing costs...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 12:54:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is the Euro doomed, too? | 94 comments (94 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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