European Tribune - Comments - Is the Euro doomed, too?

Is the Euro doomed, too? | 94 comments (94 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

That's a 4% (annualised) default rate... Ouch!

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 08:23:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 1)

Honestly, not so high. How what odds would you want on none of the 16 largest UK banks failing during the next year ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 11:43:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 0)

Oh, the implied odds of some of the 16 banks failing is 48% (annualised).

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 12:06:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 0)

Well, sounds lowish to me... (and, since the LIBOR excludes the lowest quartile, one of those banks is probably borrowing at above of a 16th chance to fail...)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 12:10:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schrödinger (none / 0)

True, LIBOR is the average of the middle 8 of the 16... And we suspect the banks understate their borrowing costs...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 6th, 2008 at 12:54:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is the Euro doomed, too? | 94 comments (94 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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