Tomorrow I'll take on the EU's state aid rules...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 03:35:14 AM EST
Bailouts aim at saving the financial sector (from itself, it should be added) rather than at saving the underlying economy.

Because the dominant narrative is that it is the financial world that makes the real economy possible rather than the other way round.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 04:48:45 AM EST

Because the dominant narrative is that it is the financial world that makes the real economy possible rather than the other way round.

Given current events I cannot imagine a better environment to change the narrative with ET leading the way.  Please do not wait until people are too busy fighting each other for enough food to survive because they will then be too desperate to listen.

Is there an ET "working group" focusing on this?

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:19:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is nationalization a  bail-out? Seriously asking.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 09:22:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is unclear to me whether everyone uses the same definitions of nationalisation and bailout.

But IMHO they are not the same: assets are nationalised while creditors are bailed out. Of course, they can take place at the same time.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 11:15:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can nationalize  the three big american banks, and get rid of stockholders and management... and then ... if you pay down the debt of the bank, are you really bailing out those who have debts with the bank?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 11:19:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg.com: RBS, Barclays in Talks on U.K. Government Funding
The U.K. government may invest at least 45 billion pounds ($79 billion) in banks including Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Plc to bolster capital depleted by mortgage-related losses, two people with knowledge of the situation said.


"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:01:34 AM EST
Barclays?

[The Twank's HOLY SHIT!™ Technology]

The endgame is fast approaching.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:14:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's why they've been writing so many letters to me about my overdraft, the gigs up, I am the one responsible for the financial collapse of western civilisation, I may as well admit it all now.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:16:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But... but... what will happen to the Premiership?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:20:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The owners will all become Russian, Chinese and Indian.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:27:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They could sell the sponsorship to HSBC...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:35:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
perhaps they'll move all the teams abroad.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:44:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's probably the most valuable thing on their books at the moment.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:55:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh man, my fame precedes me.  And this early in my A.M.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:21:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Quotes from an economist on this morning's CSPAN Washington Journal:

  1. The global recession is on its way.

  2. The US bailout was a small pebble in a turbulent sea.

ET's positions?  (I'm going to start pushing you folks until you tell me to SHUT UP!)

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:37:33 AM EST
SHUT UP!  (just kidding) ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:45:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agree on both counts.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:52:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hard to disagree. You and Stiglitz hit the nail on the head.

Can you outline any parallels between the East Asian IMF response and the proposed bailouts in terms of:

European Tribune - Comments - In praise of bankruptcy

The propped-up exchange rate allowed wealth to flee the country in favourable terms,

i.e. Does propping up the banks allow wealth to flee the bank before the (what now looks inevitable) nationalisation happens anyway?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:20:51 AM EST
re: your last question - Of course, that's the whole point of the Paulson plan. It's made for ten thousand insiders in DC and Wall Street.

Pierre
by Pierre on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:28:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Where is the wealth fleeing to? And how do we write a proposal to tax the transactions?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:33:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Stiglitz proposes exit taxes (the restitution of capital controls).

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:37:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, for the international case - but what about for the case of local banks being propped up by Paulson (or Darling)...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:53:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, within a currency union or a single country it's a balancing act. Are you referring to people moving their savings to NR because it's perceived to be safer?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 09:25:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
how do we write a proposal to tax the transactions?
I seriously doubt that there are existing mechanisms to do this now, either for inter- or intra-national transfers.  Creating such mechanisms will require changes in the compositions of governments that will only occur if an understanding of what is happening becomes sufficiently wide spread.

First, new governments will have to be elected; second; the nature of election finance will have to be changed to remove the stranglehold now held by wealth over politics. Then a serious program of wealth redistribution, framed as "disgorging ill gotten gains," could be devised.  This would need to be coordinated on an international level.  

If the choice were between surrendering 80% of your personal wealth or having to move to Burma or the Central African Republic or some other such "haven" there might be many takers.  How about million dollar bounties on fugitive billionaires?  Dead or alive?  Might not get back the money, but it could discourage flight.  Might as well dream big! :-)

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 01:17:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
i.e. Does propping up the banks allow wealth to flee the bank before the (what now looks inevitable) nationalisation happens anyway?

So if the banking system is so badly damaged, is it worthwhile fleeing anywhere? what are the strong places where it is worth running to? or is any strength in the current climate a chimera?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:30:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Um, if someone tried to prop up the Icelandic Krona I'm sure a lot of wealthy Icelanders would take their money to the Eurozone.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:35:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:57:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But how much safer is a Eurozone bank than an Icelandic one?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:11:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What matters is the exchange rate risk...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:25:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, shit, here's the window of opportunity for the fleet-footed wealthy Icelanders...

Bloomberg: Iceland Seeks Loan From Russia, Pegs Currency (October 7)

The central bank said it pegged the krona against a basket of currencies at a rate equivalent to 130 per euro. According to Nordea Bank AB, the krona traded at 200 to the euro as of 11:39 a.m. in Reykjavik. That's 53 percent weaker than the peg implies.


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:30:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The current crisis looks a bit like the Asian crisis in reverse.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 11:11:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, we even have Russia bailing out OECD countries...

How's your Rysskräck doing today?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 11:13:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's being counteracted by the daily 25 % decline in the value of Gazprom shares.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 11:32:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a rumor that Russia is going to give a loan of 4 bill dollars to Iceland...they said no one else cared to.
Something about it here but in German (I am not sure if it's a true):
http://www.n-tv.de/Milliarden_aus_Russland_Island_in_grosser_Not/071020082812/1033997.html
by vbo on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:00:51 AM EST
Maybe the Russian government is bailing out Russian lenders?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:03:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If they are giving it they will definitely ask for something in return...no sympathy in this world.
by vbo on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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