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Central banks launch co-ordinated rate cut

Central banks around the world announced a co-ordinated cut in interest rates on Wednesday, in response to mounting fears about the impact of the financial crisis on the world economy.

The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the central banks of Canada, Switzerland and Sweden all cut their main lending rates by 0.5 percentage points.

German and UK government bonds fell sharply on the news. In London, shares initially rose, but then drifted lower, and at 12.30 local time the FTSE 100-share index was down about 0.7 per cent on the day.

This is all about saving the City: the current crisis was created by too much cheap debt - how on earth will more cheap debt help solve that?

Lending to the real economy is not constrained because it is too expensive to borrow money, but because banks don't want to take on any additional risk (even good risk) because they realize they are carrying too much of the wrong kind and need to reduce that - and thus the price for risk (the risk premium) has skyrocketed.

Interest rates have 3 components, in fact:

  1. the cost of money (set by ECB)
  2. the cost of liquidity (or the risk on other banks, which is skyrocketing)
  3. the cost of actual transaction risk (which hasn't changed much for good counterparties, but has also skyrocketed for the toxic stuff)

The first one was too low for too long, and has led to the second one going up as banks realize they've gorged on garbage (ie they mispriced the third).

Bringing the first one down is not the solution to the crisis, which impacts items 2 and 3.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:01:26 AM EST
If they lower interest rates again they're going to at best get another bubble...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:02:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the issue is that at the same time as all this fun stuff in the city... the "real economy"?/"Main Street?"/whatever is going into recession... and the knee jerk reaction to that is always monetary, not fiscal.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:07:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Housing Pain Gauge: Nearly 1 in 6 Owners 'Under Water'

The relentless slide in home prices has left nearly one in six U.S. homeowners owing more on a mortgage than the home is worth, raising the possibility of a rise in defaults -- the very misfortune that touched off the credit crisis last year.

The result of homeowners being "under water" is more pressure on an economy that is already in a downturn. No longer having equity in their homes makes people feel less rich and thus less inclined to shop at the mall.

(...)

About 75.5 million U.S. households own the homes they live in. After a housing slump that has pushed values down 30% in some areas, roughly 12 million households, or 16%, owe more than their homes are worth, according to Moody's Economy.com.




In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:13:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I think I'm about to get into one of my hysterical laugh moments (last was with the unforgettable 'it failed because Nancy Pelosi said unkind things about George Bush in her speech):

Judging by the French stock exchange, they launched a bubble that lasted...

3 hours and 30 minutes.

Is that ((gaah)) ? Or ((weee)) or something?

"The womb that spawned that thing is fertile yet"

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Will have to settle on [Cyrille's Jawdrop™ Technology] then.

"The womb that spawned that thing is fertile yet"
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:55:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, misread the graph.

The bubble lasted 90 minutes.

We are going for nanoseconds of confidence soon.

"The womb that spawned that thing is fertile yet"

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:01:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I love this place!

The music's over. I've turned out the lights. Bye Bye.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:09:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The bubbles get shorter and more frequent.

The sum of the lengths of the bubbles converges to a finite amount: the time to the phase transition.


A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:53:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... pushing on a string. While high interest rates can restrain extension of credit ... the only question being how how ... low interest rates cannot force extension of credit.

In which circumstances only a fiscal stimulus can be effective.


Utsukushikereba sore de ii

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 10:10:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
into a diary on dKos:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/8/8418/54185/713/623735

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:33:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody is recommending it. We are reaching the "shoot the messenger" phase...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:46:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you just forgot to add the word "Barack" or "Obama" to the title. :)
by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:59:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They're most likely still distracted by OMG Teh Awesome from last night.

Don't expect much sense from the Clockwork Orange until after the election.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 08:59:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're getting comments about how the interest rate cuts are actually working...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 09:50:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome a Paris:
This is all about saving the City: the current crisis was created by too much cheap debt - how on earth will more cheap debt help solve that?

that's like wondering why a heroin junkie doesn't want to taper off with methadone...

i don't think many in financial services have the equanimity you display, when it comes to contemplating the return of banking to the stodgy world it was before 'melamine' derivatives came along.

The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it. Chinese Proverb.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:33:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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