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EuroIntelligence.com: THE DEPRESSION OF 2009(October 6, 2008)
Financial crises do not automatically produce recessions or depressions. Only bad policy cab turn a crisis into a catastrophe. The 1930 Great Depression could have been avoided if governments had not pursued pro-cyclical policies, and most important, if central banks had not allowed deflation.  We have learned from those mistakes, but are committing new and possibly bigger ones. Government is our one and only safety net. It could, if it wanted to, provide basic financial services, that could easily fulfil three economic functions that are attributed to finance: to provide liquidity, to share risk, and to allow agents in the economy to make inter-temporal choices. You don't need CDOs and CDSs for that. A network of central bank branch offices, in combinations with a relatively small number of national, or nationalised banks, could temporarily offer the vast bulk of all financial service of wider economic relevance. The way to go is to shrink the financial system and nationalise the systemically important financial institutions. I have heard there are about 45-50 in the euro area though this is not a precise guess, and subject to change over time. After the financial sector is stabilised, it is time to rebuilt the system, to allow the government later re-privatise its assets, ideally subject to different incentive structures than those that have led to this crisis. In theory, governments could even make money on it. I doubt it. But at the very least, governments can minimise losses.
(h/t to Metatone who's procrastinating badly)

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 04:16:56 PM EST
Metatone does not procrastinate badly.  He does not even procrastinate goodly, though the clueless managers of Suzlon are waiting.  Or is the ball in my court?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 04:45:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Argh! The ball is in my court, unfortunately since I came back from Paris I've been bogged down in another matter I had on my plate, which expanded unexpectedly in scope.

I should be sending you some serious email after the weekend.

A further question: I'll be in Germany a fair bit in Nov, schedule is not yet confirmed, but it's looking that I'd probably have some time in either w/c 10th or in the period from 22nd - 25th. Are you in country? Should we attempt to converge at some point?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:08:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, lts tk it prvt.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Off topic: did you get my e-mail?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:08:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sent

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Got it, thanks.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:38:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The guy is optimistic: I've been calling it the Great Depression of the 2010's. I doubt the financial crisis itself will be over before the end of 2009.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 05:11:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last big heap of toxic Alt-A loans resets in 2010, according to Calculated Risk. So I would expect the last big financial shakeup then. Unless they manage to actually predict the effects. beforehand this time.
by Trond Ove on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 05:49:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This crisis is about much, much more than mortgage lending...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Oct 10th, 2008 at 08:04:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Doom is Nigh!
by Trond Ove on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 01:32:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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