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We were given an update by my CEO on the current events in the financial world. I won't go into any details here, obviously, but I thought I'd mention that he said "nobody could have predicted this crisis (blablabla) no expert ever imagined that it could be that bad..."

Sigh. How do we get more Serious PeopleTM to read eurotrib?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 10:22:29 AM EST
Was it impossible for you to counter him?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 10:23:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Questions were allowed, but in a tightly controlled way. I did get to ask him one, but I did not comment on that particular bit.

The union guys asked the hardest-hitting questions, explicitly saying that others probably did not dare ask them...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 10:26:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess you have not been able to communicate your worries to the higher ups? I mean, you've been going on about this for like three years.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 10:28:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I spend my time on my deals. Management is too political for me.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 10:52:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plus there's supposed to be a risk department whose job it is to predict (or at least stress-test) these things.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 11:13:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Haha.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 11:30:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was talking to someone who used to work for an SIV. At one point he wan involved in figuring out scenarios under which their portfolio would blow up. One of the scenarios was "worldwide market outage lasting 4 weeks or more". Of course that scenario was looked at by the appropriate senior person and signed off as 'acceptable risk'. And of course that's what happened in August last year.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 11:34:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Information Processing in Business

The Claim (Hutchinson Operator):

[W(A) U a1(w1) U a2(w2) ... an(wn), n = 1, 2, 3 ....] such that SIWIGO = 1

Where:

W = Repertoire of Operations on the data
w = Selected operation
A = Total data stream
a = Selected data
SIWIGO = Some Idea of What Is Going On.

What Really Happens:

[WB(BA) U ab1(wb1) U ab2(wb2) ... abn(wbn), n = 1, 2, 3 ....] such that  SIWIGO = {}

Where:

WB = Repertoire of Operations on the data allowed by the Big Bosses

wb = Selected operation on data by little bosses to confirm the prejudices and preconceptions of the Big Bosses

AB = Total data stream selected to confirm the prejudices and preconceptions of the Big Bosses

ab = Selected data specifically chosen to confirm the prejudices and preconceptions of the Big Bosses

A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 02:26:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Starvid naively asks, "I guess you have not been able to communicate your worries to the higher ups?"

Don't know about France.  In the US telling the truth or questioning higher ups is a sure ticket to unemployment for white collar workers.  A 'blue collar' worker is simply ignored; after all, if that person knew anything they'd be a white collar worker.  

A doo run-run-run, a doo run-run

by ATinNM on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 02:06:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Someone who can say that kind of thing is so duplicitous or so dumb, or both, that reading ET would do nothing for her/im.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 10:49:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All the Serious People say it, though. It's a requirement to be a Serious People, I think, actually...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 10:53:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

How does it feel to be
One of the Serious People?
Now that you know who you are
What do you want to be?
And have you traveled very far?
Far as the eye can see.
How does it feel to be
One of the Serious People?
How often have you been there?
Often enough to know.
What did you see, when you were there?
Nothing that doesn't show.
Baby you're a rich man,
Baby you're a rich man,
Baby you're a rich man too.
You keep all your money in a big brown bag inside a zoo.
What a thing to do.


When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 11:21:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not having to live in reality seems to be an implicit job requirement at that level.

Still - it must be galling to work for such a total noob.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 11:24:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Whenver I see "no-one could have predicted..." I remember Bill Maher's rant about Iraq which can be summarised as "when you've been so wrong for so long regarding just about everything, you have to stop making predictions".

This applies especially to Francis Fuk-u-uppa, who writes in the Guardian too often for my liking (about once every 3 months is far far too often).

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 11:56:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
These "Serious People" have to see some benefit to themselves in investing their time at ET.  Perhaps people in the upcoming Obama administration will take some of ETs ideas and run with them.  They'll have financial problems that the old bullshit won't address and the population will be looking for effective answers (or at least possibilities) to the chaos.

Question: What does ET offer a US population in turmoil, after the election?  Time to get the concepts/arguements/etc. organized.  Time to become a bonafide "Think Tank"?  Obama Time less than a month away.

The music's over. I've turned out the lights. Bye Bye.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 12:11:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not going to make a difference if Obama is president. His economic people are hardcore neo-libs who think that "education" is the key to this crisis.  They don't question the premise that the market is God.

I honestly think that an Obama presidency may do more harm than a McCain one would.

Because, McCain will be kept on a leash.  Obama will not, and the cultish impulse means that dissent will be punished.  So there will likely be less room for challenging the wisdom of current economic policy then than there is now.  And with Rubin and friends running the show, there is no chance that they are going to take Wall Street on.

And in the end, this will serve to discredit the Left on economic issues. And that means more of the same.    


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 02:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama might be forced into into action. The US government, while willing to use force, is terrified of civil unrest.

McCain's thirst for WW3 wouldn't be good for the economy either.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 03:38:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very good MillMan, VERY GOOD!

Give Obama options which AT LEAST have a chance at turning things around.  That's what America will want, and ineffective bullshit won't cut it.

The music's over. I've turned out the lights. Bye Bye.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 04:55:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that's one opinion I TOTALLY disagree with.

NEXT!

The music's over. I've turned out the lights. Bye Bye.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 04:52:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NEXT!

This is precisely the reason that nothing will change.  

Because the moment that anyone expresses an inkling of doubt, it's SYFPH.

And that's not going to cut it when there is a serious economic crisis underway.

I have no doubt that an Obama Presidency would see the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act, but I doubt that there's going to commitment to the level of market regulation that's needed to deal with the root problem.  

Markets are not self-regulating.  Acting as though they are means encourages corrupt behavior, and ridiculous schemes like the derivates swindle to develop.  

This is fully understood by those who encourage deregulation, and then when it becomes clear that markets have become little more than the mega-casinos of the "serious people" they acted shocked, just shocked, at the corruption going on.

Pressing working people into compromise with the "serious people" on Wall Street is like asking chickens to make a deal with Col. Sanders.  

But instead of focusing on the rape of the American economy, we've been swept up in a feel good campaign about whether this election is going to be historic for because it put a women or a black man into a position of power.

Now millions may be left without work, hundreds of thousands without homes, and a nation without real hope.  

But don't you see that doesn't matter, because this campaign is going to be historic however it ends up.  It's a damn shame that those without homes can't sleep beneath the shadow of history, and that those who go hungry can't eat it.  But it's history that we'll have, and the consequences for humanity be damned.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 05:40:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. What does it actually mean, who does what, when you request "But instead of focusing on the rape of the American economy ..."?  Are you saying you are dissatisfied with the "themes" of the Obama campaign?

  2. If you are interested in feeding and housing people, your solution is ... what? "Focus on the rape of the American economy"?  Who does that feed or house?  How?


The music's over. I've turned out the lights. Bye Bye.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 05:58:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1.  Nationalization is the answer.  Neither candidate is willing to admit that, at least in the short term, broad sections of the US economy need to be nationalized through the purchase of the entire business by the government.  I'm not talking about equity, I'm talking about ownership.  This isn't compromise, this is a real solution.  

It isn't just banks.  GM closed below $5 today.  The time has come for the government to take a controlling stake in GM and get rid of the current management.  The collapse of GM would lead to wages in the sector being dropped to the Delphi rate that's about half what the wage is now.  The transplants will follow.  Toyota in Kentucky was caught with its pants down on this one about 2 years back.  Honda has always refused to match wages in the auto sector. The collapse of wages in the auto sector means depression, because it will create a downward spiral on wages in the areas this plants have been built.

The end result?  Depression level unemployment in Michigan and the Midwest as demand is destroyed in those regions.  Unemployment is at or near 9% in Michigan, and in auto cities in Indiana.  If you slash wages in the auto factories, people are going to default on their house, and they sure the fuck aren't going to be eating out or going to shop.  Demand destruction results in the resulting reductions in supply.  If people lose their jobs, then the people who made the products that the job losers lose their jobs too.  It's a cycle of destruction.  Same thing with wage cuts.

I'm sorry, but I don't see an adequate appreciation for the gravity of the situation from either Obama or McCain.  We've got Al Smith running against Herbert Hoover, and we're starting economic calamity down. Forgive me for being less than ecstatic about the prospects of the election to actually make a difference.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 07:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Much buzz in the US that Obama might be assassinated. This has been going on since he entered the race last year.

Remember, the US is run by a one-party, two-party system. Unlike Janus, the two faces are posed looking the same direction: downward at the tax revenue of the US Treasury.

Share. Share resources, share delight, share burdens, share the healing. If we only could realize that sharing will bring us back from mass suicide.

by Isis on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 11:42:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
they thought they had found the perpetual motion money machine, the holy grail of capitalist fantasies.

no-one can make water run uphill, but they succeeded beyond their wildest dreams in making capital do just that!

icarus flew too close to the sun, and gravity took over.

some of them are just covering their asses feigning naivete, having safely offshored their profits ahead of time.

"who me? how could i have known, do you expect me to go scrape the internet for wild-eyed prophecies to clue me in?"

er, yes actually... it's called due diligence

The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it. Chinese Proverb.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 04:36:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
they're still hooked on crappy sources, need more time and crises to motivate them to drill deeper for news-they-can-use.

now you'll be blogging more to celebrate our new readers, and help them up to speed!

welcome new eyeballs, you have arrived...

The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it. Chinese Proverb.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 05:11:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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