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Great power politics are starting to come into play also.

But what price will the Russians demand for their bailout? A highly-placed source in Reykjavik tells Coffee House that Iceland might look kindly on requests from Russia's military to use America's former military base in Iceland. America closed its Naval Air Station at Keflavik Airport two years ago, handing back the Nato facility to the Icelandic government.

Now the word in Reykjavik is that the Russians could have use of it in return for the loan. Not that Keflavik would become a Russian air base -- Iceland is a member of Nato, so that is out of the question -- but it would suit the Kremlin to be able to use it for, say, refuelling and maintenance. Having use of such a facility only a few hours flying time from North America would be a major Russian propaganda coup and cause consternation in Washington.

Iceland is in two minds. It wants to remain a loyal Nato member. But it is also in financially desperate straits and there is some resentment about the abrupt manner in which the Americans left, leaving the massive facility to deteriorate. So Iceland might look more kindly on any Russian request than the rest of Nato thinks.

UPDATE: Sources in Reykjavik, who've now read our story, tell Coffee House that Iceland turned to Russia for a loan after the EU, the Scandinavian countries and the US Federal Reserve turned it down.

The irony of Iceland's emergence as an over-sized player in financial markets, is that it's likely to leave the country less politically independent.  Will Iceland turn towards the EU and the US, or will they look to Russia for salvation?  Keflavik is only 4.5 hours by Bear Bomber from New York, and that is one hell of a check on any missile defense system, because strategic bomber trajectories are much more easily made other than straight lines than missiles.  And they can fly in low under radar.  Not to mention that open access to the North Atlantic means that the Russian Arctic Fleet can go play games in the North Atlantic a lot easier.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 04:20:48 PM EST
If the Americans have any sense this will scare them into bailing out Iceland. After all, the cost is nothing compared to either their other bailouts so far, or the the cost of some individual weapon system (like DDG1000 anyone?) which will be far less cost efficient geopolitically speaking than keeping the Russians off Iceland.

Might I remind you that Iceland is smack bang in the middle of the GIUK gap?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 04:42:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
GIUK= Greenland/Iceland/UK gap.  The passage to open water for Russian fleets coming from Arctic ports to the North Atlantic.

It's another shitty day in paradise.

But of course, Iceland is not going to turn to Russia.  Iceland is Europe. (shakes head) Or not.

Peeling Iceland off from NATO is a cheap way to outflank Western Europe.

Another shitty day in paradise.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Oct 9th, 2008 at 05:45:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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