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If I read this right, the exit poll says, in das monde's ordering, with those above the 5% limit bolded:

  • Social Democrats 13.21%
  • Social Liberals 3.69%
  • Christian Democrats 21.02%
  • Liberal and Centre Union 4.83%
  • Zuokas's breakaway Lithuanian Republic Liberla movement (not listed by das monde) 4.21% [now THAT split should hurt!]
  • Order and Justice 13.94%
  • Labor (Darbo) 10.81%
  • Lithuanian Peasant Popular Union 3.91%
  • Front (Paleckis's party) 3.26%
  • Rising Nation Party (the party of TV showman Arūnas Valinskas) 11.2%
  • Polish minority party: 3.97%


*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 12th, 2008 at 01:34:17 PM EST
If I got that right, too, turnout was a dismal 50%.

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 12th, 2008 at 01:35:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Based on this result, I would judge Lithuania... ungovernable. But I hope someone can pitch in with descriptions of potential coalitions...

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 12th, 2008 at 05:08:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Valinskas could help both the conservatives and LSDP, I think. Or LSDP and the conservatives could almost leave "populists" behind... Liberals would probably prefer conservatives. Without conservatives, center and left parties could also try...
by das monde on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 02:43:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, 20% for parties not reaching the threshold? That has got to produce some interesting after election discussions.
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Oct 12th, 2008 at 06:44:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... combinations that would be over the 7% margin for a coalition to win proportional representation, so not even requiring a party merger.

Utsukushikereba sore de ii
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Oct 12th, 2008 at 11:41:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mixed up the two liberal parties (with or without Zuokas). But later results seem to be favorable to the non-Zuokas liberals.

Provincial and big city districts vote markedly differently, and later corrections from Vilnius and Kaunas are often substantial.

by das monde on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 02:14:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I saw Zuokas's name in a Lithuanian-language article for the Lithuanian Republic Liberal movement -- and guessed wrong ;-)

Now for the apparent true winner of the election, who is the populist Valinskas and what does he want and advocate?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 05:42:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Both liberal parties sneak through, apparently. That changes a lot! The question is: will they be willing to work together? Which would negotiate itself intogovernment more effectively.

Mr Valinskas is a popular quiz-showman (right from the 1990s), his wife is a singer. I do not know much about his party, nor I recognize names in the list. The short Lithuanian Wikipedia page says that his party contains many coleagues from arts-and show buisiness. But they promiss to end the Lithuanian political circus, rather than to let it loose. They would govern with anyone, except (emphatically) Darbo and Paksas' Order&Justice parties.

Lithuanian show-personalities often announce their interest in politics, not with serious apparences usually. At least one actor was running for a president. There are several TV satirical programs, seeking to touch politics regurlarly, but by now they are no less dumb than the politics.

by das monde on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:11:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, policy-wise, a complete blank-slate who promises 'pragmatism'?

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:32:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Valinskas indicated that he does not think much of Kirkilas as a premier. On the other hand, many fear that his party sympathize socialdemocrats better. They appear to exclude Paksas' party only now.

I noticed an interest thing about absentee voting (see the "paštu" column here). Valinskas party was getting just 7.5% there, while Prunskiene's and socialliberal parties were aiming for the 5% barrier (and getting more absentee votes than any of the liberals). The conservatives were getting 23.5% of absentee votes. The LSDP and Darbo parties were getting 2% more there as well.

by das monde on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 11:55:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Both liberal parties sneak through, apparently. That changes a lot!

If I read your figures right, at least four parties needed in a coalition (apart from the I guess unlikely scenario of the three biggest parties joining).

*Traitor*, n.
A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 13th, 2008 at 06:39:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The two liberal parties increased friendliness to each other. Zoukas even indicated that he would give up leadership in a re-union. The coalition of conservatives, liberals and Valinskas' party already have 40 seats, and could easily get a majority in the run-off. The run-off round will admit or spoil that.
by das monde on Tue Oct 14th, 2008 at 12:01:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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