The Oil Drum will post a series of articles commenting on the report, so be on the lookout for them, starting tomorrow. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Worldwide, conventional crude production increases only modestly between 2007 and 2030 - by 5 mb/d - as almost all the additional capacity from new oilfields is offset by the decline in output at existing fields. Output from known oilfields that are already being developed or are awaiting development expands through to 2020, but then begins to drop, as few such fields are left to be brought into production and many of them enter their decline phase. Fields that are yet to be found account for about a quarter of total crude oil production by 2030. - IEA WEO 2008, p. 249
- IEA WEO 2008, p. 249
This strikes me as crazily, wildly optimistic, based on discovery trends over the last decades...
