But we now, unexepctedly, have a strong "buy" signal again: an article by CERA's Daniel Yergin telling us that current prices are justified.

I certainly won't question Yergin's history of being wrong on oil prices after your diary and links.  But is it at all conceivable his contention "that current prices are justified" could be wrong on the downside?  The chief bit of positive news for consumption appears to be that China is still growing.  Is that enough to keep oil prices around $60/bl, or could they fall below $50?  Are we so certain that deflation will not continue?  Will OPEC countries already hurt by price declines be able to cut production sufficiently to drive up the price?  Just asking.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."