Many of the world's up-and-coming new powers neither embrace nor aspire to the Western model of liberal democracy. This makes the idea of an "alliance of democracies" a nonstarter. The new powers include authoritarian regimes and they demand a role in global governance. Russia is ready to cooperate, if the West is ready to take it seriously. Compete, confront, or cooperate. One of these verbs will define the next era of Russia's relations with the West. The new industrial revolution in Asia, above all in China and India, has led to the redistribution of the world's wealth in favor of new leaders. In the 1980s and 1990s, globalization favored developed nations, but now the tables have turned. Still more critical in the long term is the West's declining moral and intellectual authority in defining the international agenda. It has made too many mistakes and has used too much self-serving rhetoric. At the same time, thinkers from "the second new world" are not being listened to or are too shy to speak up. Thus an intellectual vacuum has emerged. As people and their leaders fail to understand what is happening and where to go, they often resort to outdated recipes. All of these changes clearly mark a new stage in international development. The Cold War was followed by 12 to 14 years of the post-Cold War era. The dawn of the 21st century saw the end of this period and the beginning of a new one that I call NEC -- a New Era of Competition, Confrontation, or Cooperation. This will be a period of transition, uncertainty, and competition. The weakening of the traditional democratic model of development has dealt a serious blow to the ideal of political democracy, which has suffered from the economic success of authoritarian nations. China is doing much better than the more democratic -- but far from fully democratic -- India. A partially democratic Kuwait is lagging behind the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. A democratic Lebanon and the Palestinian state ruled by democratically elected radicals are in the throes of civil war. Their more authoritarian neighboring Arab states are doing better.
Many of the world's up-and-coming new powers neither embrace nor aspire to the Western model of liberal democracy. This makes the idea of an "alliance of democracies" a nonstarter. The new powers include authoritarian regimes and they demand a role in global governance. Russia is ready to cooperate, if the West is ready to take it seriously.
Compete, confront, or cooperate. One of these verbs will define the next era of Russia's relations with the West. The new industrial revolution in Asia, above all in China and India, has led to the redistribution of the world's wealth in favor of new leaders. In the 1980s and 1990s, globalization favored developed nations, but now the tables have turned. Still more critical in the long term is the West's declining moral and intellectual authority in defining the international agenda. It has made too many mistakes and has used too much self-serving rhetoric. At the same time, thinkers from "the second new world" are not being listened to or are too shy to speak up. Thus an intellectual vacuum has emerged. As people and their leaders fail to understand what is happening and where to go, they often resort to outdated recipes.
All of these changes clearly mark a new stage in international development. The Cold War was followed by 12 to 14 years of the post-Cold War era. The dawn of the 21st century saw the end of this period and the beginning of a new one that I call NEC -- a New Era of Competition, Confrontation, or Cooperation. This will be a period of transition, uncertainty, and competition.
The weakening of the traditional democratic model of development has dealt a serious blow to the ideal of political democracy, which has suffered from the economic success of authoritarian nations. China is doing much better than the more democratic -- but far from fully democratic -- India. A partially democratic Kuwait is lagging behind the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. A democratic Lebanon and the Palestinian state ruled by democratically elected radicals are in the throes of civil war. Their more authoritarian neighboring Arab states are doing better.
People do notice these things. keep to the Fen Causeway
