extrapolating from 15 years in the same spot, and from what locals tell me, i guess a continuation of slow drying out. lake trasimeno is consistently low, and many people run out of water in the summer now who didn't 10 years ago.

it still rains a fair amount, right now we are in a damp period that has lasted 10 days with very few peeps of sun, but there are more cloudy days without rain, especially in fall and spring and less snow every winter, which also is less extreme.

so climate chaos seems to avoid us, touch lignite, though there is the hints of the desertification process i have observed and heard about south of rome, in the length and heat of the summers, which were already plenty warm.

they tend to get more dramatic weather north and south of here, which i believe is caused by sardinia deflecting and taking the brunt of rainy and stormy atlantic low pressure events.

there is still plenty of groundwater, though i have observed that water tables in south facing slopes have dwindled much more that in north facing, which can have 3 hours less daily sunshine per day in midwinter!

i used to gaze across the valley in envy at those lucky sods basking in 5pm sunshine from my shaded side, and i see the snow take 2 weeks longer to melt chez moi than it does 'there', but when i heard about the water situation, i realised i had made a fortituous choice, my winters may be colder than theirs, and my house take more firewood to heat, but my water situation remains copious, though one spring has dried up, sadly, since my sojourn started.

most importantly, with respect to global warming, it is cooler and greener in the 'microwave' months of july and august, and that's something i appreciate more each year.

i know you can get numbers from google, but that's how it is on the ground.

earthquakes, especially living in a 400 year old 3-floor stone cottage, with some of the old 'cement' binding the stone made of sand and clay, and easily scrapable out with a fingernail, are my worst fear. i went through 2 pretty bad ones, one of which did some damage, though nothing like as much as they did to assissi and foligno... where people say they could see church spires from spots they couldn't before, and some wells started to spout hot water!

now that's a side effect i could go for. we went to rapolano hot springs again tonight, and i feel as close to wonderful as makes no difference, even though it's an hour each way drive...

i don't know if global warming increases earthquake risk, i sure hope not, it's too far from low already...

~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~