How dependent is Europe on Russian gas? November 18th, 2008 by Pierre Noël, University of Cambridge Conventional wisdom has it that Russia dominates Europe's natural gas market, and that European imports of Russian gas are growing and can only continue to grow. This supposedly places the EU in a dangerous state of dependency and compromises its strategic position towards Russia. All sides of the debate over Europe's Russia policy share these premises, including those "realists" who argue that dependency on Russian gas makes it irresponsible for the EU to pursue policies that antagonise Moscow. But the conventional wisdom is wrong: Europe's gas supply is not dominated by Russia, or, for that matter, by any other exporter. Since 1980, and particularly since 1995, Europe has considerably diversified its sources of gas imports. Today, for the EU as a whole, gas supply diversity is not a pressing problem.
Conventional wisdom has it that Russia dominates Europe's natural gas market, and that European imports of Russian gas are growing and can only continue to grow. This supposedly places the EU in a dangerous state of dependency and compromises its strategic position towards Russia. All sides of the debate over Europe's Russia policy share these premises, including those "realists" who argue that dependency on Russian gas makes it irresponsible for the EU to pursue policies that antagonise Moscow. But the conventional wisdom is wrong: Europe's gas supply is not dominated by Russia, or, for that matter, by any other exporter.
Since 1980, and particularly since 1995, Europe has considerably diversified its sources of gas imports. Today, for the EU as a whole, gas supply diversity is not a pressing problem.
However, the purpose of the analysis is supposedly to examine the implications of such an event...
The unanswered question is: How much economic havoc would the shutting off of 7% of primary energy consumption cause?
7% (or thereabouts, reading roughly off the graph) doesn't seem like much, but, for example, let's say that GDP is only half-dependent on energy... that would be 3% of GDP?
Is that significant?
A further issue raised in the comments on the blog is that Russia's internal use of gas is rising, so in the medium term we do need to be looking for alternative sources anyway.
Another example:
The European Council on Foreign Relations: The death of NATO (by Nick Whitney)
NATO is dying; it's the common condition, of course, of all living things from the moment of birth. And as NATO approaches its 60th birthday next spring, there seems no immediate urgency about writing its obituary; 60-year-olds may reasonably look forward to another decade, perhaps two or even three, of active and productive life. Nonetheless, amidst the celebrations, it is time for some discreet reflection on the fact that `the old man will not always be with us'. Human institutions, like human beings, can collapse with surprising speed once it becomes apparent they have outlived their usefulness. The dramatic dissolution of the Soviet Union stands as a reminder of what can happen to organisations when doubts take hold as to whether they still serve any real interests other than those of their own apparatchiks - and how suddenly such doubts can grow when they attempt to convert themselves into something they are not.
Human institutions, like human beings, can collapse with surprising speed once it becomes apparent they have outlived their usefulness. The dramatic dissolution of the Soviet Union stands as a reminder of what can happen to organisations when doubts take hold as to whether they still serve any real interests other than those of their own apparatchiks - and how suddenly such doubts can grow when they attempt to convert themselves into something they are not.
