WARSAW: Poland may delay its euro adoption planned for 2012 if the financial turmoil continues beyond spring 2009, Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski was quoted as saying on Saturday. "We can join the ERM-2 corridor in the spring of next year at the earliest. I hope the current turbulences on the currency markets will be over by then," Rostowski told Polska daily in an interview. Asked what would happen if the crisis goes on after this date -- when Poland is set to enter the ERM-2 according to the government's euro roadmap -- Rostowski said: "Then we will delay our accession. Our goal remains 2012 for adoption of the euro but this is not ideology." In order to adopt the common currency the Polish government must also change the constitution, which requires the support of the main opposition, the euro-sceptic Law and Justice.
WARSAW: Poland may delay its euro adoption planned for 2012 if the financial turmoil continues beyond spring 2009, Finance Minister Jacek Rostowski was quoted as saying on Saturday.
"We can join the ERM-2 corridor in the spring of next year at the earliest. I hope the current turbulences on the currency markets will be over by then," Rostowski told Polska daily in an interview.
Asked what would happen if the crisis goes on after this date -- when Poland is set to enter the ERM-2 according to the government's euro roadmap -- Rostowski said: "Then we will delay our accession. Our goal remains 2012 for adoption of the euro but this is not ideology."
In order to adopt the common currency the Polish government must also change the constitution, which requires the support of the main opposition, the euro-sceptic Law and Justice.
It has been a hard year for the biggest Swiss bank, UBS. After losing millions in the US sub-prime mortgage market, it has had to beg the Swiss government for help. As Imogen Foulkes reports, its reputation in Switzerland may never recover. Swiss shareholders are angry that the value of their shares has plummeted In Zurich, UBS head office sits astride Paradeplatz - Parade Square to you and me. But in recent months, the Swiss have renamed it Piratenplatz - or Pirate Square - to signify what they believe is the daylight robbery that has taken place over the last 12 months. Not of their biggest bank, but by it. When the news began to trickle out that UBS was in big trouble because of its exposure to sub-prime mortgages, there was first surprise, then concern, and then finally, as the multi-billion pound extent of the losses became clear, fury. I remember going to an emergency shareholders meeting earlier this year.
It has been a hard year for the biggest Swiss bank, UBS. After losing millions in the US sub-prime mortgage market, it has had to beg the Swiss government for help. As Imogen Foulkes reports, its reputation in Switzerland may never recover.
In Zurich, UBS head office sits astride Paradeplatz - Parade Square to you and me.
But in recent months, the Swiss have renamed it Piratenplatz - or Pirate Square - to signify what they believe is the daylight robbery that has taken place over the last 12 months. Not of their biggest bank, but by it.
When the news began to trickle out that UBS was in big trouble because of its exposure to sub-prime mortgages, there was first surprise, then concern, and then finally, as the multi-billion pound extent of the losses became clear, fury.
I remember going to an emergency shareholders meeting earlier this year.
Lord Mandelson says he is concerned about the "alarming" treatment of small businesses by some bank managers. The business secretary welcomed Royal Bank of Scotland's announcement that it would freeze overdraft charges for small firms until the end of next year. But he said there was concern some banks were summarily changing the terms of loans to small firms. And he said he was drawing up a code of conduct and a monitoring panel to regulate their behaviour. The business secretary told BBC One's Andrew Marr show he hoped other banks would follow RBS's example but he said he was hearing worrying reports about the actions of some local bank managers.
Lord Mandelson says he is concerned about the "alarming" treatment of small businesses by some bank managers.
The business secretary welcomed Royal Bank of Scotland's announcement that it would freeze overdraft charges for small firms until the end of next year.
But he said there was concern some banks were summarily changing the terms of loans to small firms.
And he said he was drawing up a code of conduct and a monitoring panel to regulate their behaviour.
The business secretary told BBC One's Andrew Marr show he hoped other banks would follow RBS's example but he said he was hearing worrying reports about the actions of some local bank managers.
Investors rush to quit buy-out funds Investors in buy-out funds are so concerned private equity returns will slump in the years ahead that they are selling their commitments for as little as 30 per cent of their original value. Eighteen months ago, if such stakes were available at all, they generally traded at a premium. The collapse in valuations reflects growing concerns that many private equity-owned companies will implode as the economic contraction intensifies. Some of the largest deals, struck at the height of the private equity boom that ended in the spring of 2007, now look to be disastrous for the equity holders.
Investors in buy-out funds are so concerned private equity returns will slump in the years ahead that they are selling their commitments for as little as 30 per cent of their original value.
Eighteen months ago, if such stakes were available at all, they generally traded at a premium.
The collapse in valuations reflects growing concerns that many private equity-owned companies will implode as the economic contraction intensifies. Some of the largest deals, struck at the height of the private equity boom that ended in the spring of 2007, now look to be disastrous for the equity holders.
Workers are losing factory jobs at the fastest rate in decades. Automakers--having failed to anticipate today's sales slump--are lobbying politicians for bailouts. The stock market is a crash heap, home prices are down by 35 percent or more in many cities and toxic assets have begun to weigh heavily on banks. America in 2008? Try China, where the global economic downturn now looks certain to end the country's 30-year growth boom, posing the greatest leadership challenge to Beijing since pro-democracy demonstrations threatened one-party communist rule back in 1989. That's not the conventional take on China--yet. But with most industrialized countries now in recession and countries the world over hoping against hope that the planet's most buoyant major economy might somehow dampen the global downturn, it's a forecast that increasingly rings true.
Workers are losing factory jobs at the fastest rate in decades. Automakers--having failed to anticipate today's sales slump--are lobbying politicians for bailouts. The stock market is a crash heap, home prices are down by 35 percent or more in many cities and toxic assets have begun to weigh heavily on banks. America in 2008? Try China, where the global economic downturn now looks certain to end the country's 30-year growth boom, posing the greatest leadership challenge to Beijing since pro-democracy demonstrations threatened one-party communist rule back in 1989.
That's not the conventional take on China--yet. But with most industrialized countries now in recession and countries the world over hoping against hope that the planet's most buoyant major economy might somehow dampen the global downturn, it's a forecast that increasingly rings true.
This article answers a question I asked in a comment yesterday:
As for the second paragraph, as Pettis must surely know already, China is following the Keynesian prescription exactly. I don't quite understand why Pettis does not acknowledge that China is already doing what he recommends it should do, or at least the first half of his recommendation: China needs to resolve this problem by expanding fiscally, not by stimulating exports.
China needs to resolve this problem by expanding fiscally, not by stimulating exports.
in the following paragraph:
Why Beijing Is In A Risky Place | Print Article | Newsweek.com
The doubts about China's stimulus plan arise in part because it's all broad strokes with no fine print. Conceptually, however, it seems intended to split the difference between promoting consumption at home, and export sales. It includes commitments to fund rural infrastructure, boost social spending on health and education, and mount an "economic housing" scheme for migrant workers in major cities--all of which, if implemented, would raise household spending over time. But it also contains perks for heavy industry, value-added tax cuts for the export sector and lending provisions that will channel bank funding to state enterprises engaged in road and rail construction and away from private companies.
It is not just in China's export orientated manufacturing hub, the Pearl River Delta, that company bosses are leaving workers with unpaid wages. The global economic crisis is affecting all of China's eastern provinces, and more and more bosses are responding by cutting and running. In the city of Jiaxing, midway between Shanghai and Hangzhou, the local authorities exposed 45 companies whose representatives had fled this year leaving 3,744 workers with wage arrears of more than 11 million yuan. And in Zhejiang province as a whole, Xinhua reported on 17 November that in the first nine months of this year, 277 bosses fled leaving nearly 50 million yuan in unpaid wages, 6.5 million of which remains un-recovered. On 21 October, the Shenzhen Labour Bureau exposed 30 companies whose bosses had skipped town leaving a wage bill of 12 million yuan. One Taiwanese boss left his 400 factory workers in Longgang district with over two million yuan in wage arrears.
In the city of Jiaxing, midway between Shanghai and Hangzhou, the local authorities exposed 45 companies whose representatives had fled this year leaving 3,744 workers with wage arrears of more than 11 million yuan. And in Zhejiang province as a whole, Xinhua reported on 17 November that in the first nine months of this year, 277 bosses fled leaving nearly 50 million yuan in unpaid wages, 6.5 million of which remains un-recovered.
On 21 October, the Shenzhen Labour Bureau exposed 30 companies whose bosses had skipped town leaving a wage bill of 12 million yuan. One Taiwanese boss left his 400 factory workers in Longgang district with over two million yuan in wage arrears.
See also this earlier New York Times article: Workers leave, bosses flee Pearl River Delta Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
China has pushed through a series of emergency measures to protect jobs and stabilize the economy in the wake of the factory closures and mass layoffs that have swept the country over the last few months. Beijing's top labour official, Yin Weimin, told a press conference on 20 November that the employment situation was grim and could get worse before the central government's four trillion yuan economic stimulation package kicks in next year. "The global economic crisis is picking up speed and spreading from developed to developing countries and the effects are becoming more and more pronounced here. Our economy is facing a serious challenge," Mr Yin, the minister of Human Resources and Social Security said. Mr Yin's comments came after the ministry conducted a survey of the employment situation in Guangdong, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hunan and Zhejiang, assessing in particular the flow of migrant workers. On 17 November, the ministry issued a notice urging local governments to postpone raising the minimum wage, allow some service orientated companies to adopt flexible working hours and pay, and consider lowering social security premiums. Local governments should also ensure that at least 50 percent of those unemployed migrants who had been employed locally for more than six months are registered as unemployed. Previously, only workers with urban residency could register as unemployed. However, social security and subsistence payments in many regions are already much lower than the minimum wage and can not sustain unemployed workers, particularly those with families, for very long. The ministry also urged local governments to introduce measures to reduce wage arrears and regulate staff layoffs. The labour department in Guangdong has already strengthened its supervision of enterprises with economic difficulties, those initiating closure, and those with wage arrears of over one month. Particular emphasis has been placed on foreign owned processing industries and labour intensive factories. Moreover, the province will set aside 540 million yuan to subsidize small and medium-sized enterprises, and grant another 200 million yuan in tax rebates for labour-intensive, export-oriented enterprises. Shanxi and Chongqing have also introduced measures to control layoffs. ...
"The global economic crisis is picking up speed and spreading from developed to developing countries and the effects are becoming more and more pronounced here. Our economy is facing a serious challenge," Mr Yin, the minister of Human Resources and Social Security said.
Mr Yin's comments came after the ministry conducted a survey of the employment situation in Guangdong, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hunan and Zhejiang, assessing in particular the flow of migrant workers. On 17 November, the ministry issued a notice urging local governments to postpone raising the minimum wage, allow some service orientated companies to adopt flexible working hours and pay, and consider lowering social security premiums. Local governments should also ensure that at least 50 percent of those unemployed migrants who had been employed locally for more than six months are registered as unemployed. Previously, only workers with urban residency could register as unemployed. However, social security and subsistence payments in many regions are already much lower than the minimum wage and can not sustain unemployed workers, particularly those with families, for very long.
The ministry also urged local governments to introduce measures to reduce wage arrears and regulate staff layoffs. The labour department in Guangdong has already strengthened its supervision of enterprises with economic difficulties, those initiating closure, and those with wage arrears of over one month. Particular emphasis has been placed on foreign owned processing industries and labour intensive factories. Moreover, the province will set aside 540 million yuan to subsidize small and medium-sized enterprises, and grant another 200 million yuan in tax rebates for labour-intensive, export-oriented enterprises. Shanxi and Chongqing have also introduced measures to control layoffs. ...
We Found the W.M.D. | NYTimes.com - Op-Ed Columnist - Thomas Friedman
So, I have a confession and a suggestion. The confession: I go into restaurants these days, look around at the tables often still crowded with young people, and I have this urge to go from table to table and say: "You don't know me, but I have to tell you that you shouldn't be here. You should be saving your money. You should be home eating tuna fish. This financial crisis is so far from over. We are just at the end of the beginning. Please, wrap up that steak in a doggy bag and go home." <...> This is the real "Code Red." As one banker remarked to me: "We finally found the W.M.D." They were buried in our own backyard -- subprime mortgages and all the derivatives attached to them. <...> "A great judgment has to be made now as to just how big and bad the situation is," says Jeffrey Garten, the Yale School of Management professor of international finance. "This is a crucial judgment. Do we think that a couple of hundred billion more and couple of bad quarters will take care of this problem, or do we think that despite everything that we have done so far -- despite the $700 billion fund to rescue banks, the lowering of interest rates and the way the Fed has stepped in directly to shore up certain markets -- the bottom is nowhere in sight and we are staring at a deep hole that the entire world could fall into?" <...> "The biggest mistake Obama could make," added Garten, "is thinking this problem is smaller than it is. On the other hand, there is far less danger in overestimating what will be necessary to solve it." Conventional wisdom says it's good for a new president to start at the bottom. The only way to go is up. That's true -- unless the bottom falls out before he starts.
This is the real "Code Red." As one banker remarked to me: "We finally found the W.M.D." They were buried in our own backyard -- subprime mortgages and all the derivatives attached to them. <...>
"A great judgment has to be made now as to just how big and bad the situation is," says Jeffrey Garten, the Yale School of Management professor of international finance. "This is a crucial judgment. Do we think that a couple of hundred billion more and couple of bad quarters will take care of this problem, or do we think that despite everything that we have done so far -- despite the $700 billion fund to rescue banks, the lowering of interest rates and the way the Fed has stepped in directly to shore up certain markets -- the bottom is nowhere in sight and we are staring at a deep hole that the entire world could fall into?" <...>
"The biggest mistake Obama could make," added Garten, "is thinking this problem is smaller than it is. On the other hand, there is far less danger in overestimating what will be necessary to solve it."
Conventional wisdom says it's good for a new president to start at the bottom. The only way to go is up. That's true -- unless the bottom falls out before he starts.
Well Suck. On. This. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Wow. Friedman makes a lot of sense when he talks about green jobs and the green economy. And since I had not seen much writing by him lately regarding Iraq, I thought he had gone contrite. That video clearly shows otherwise.
Which presents what I call a Heidegger Dilemma. I know a lot of people think Martin Heidegger was full of shit as a philosopher, but I was drawn to and impressed by a lot of his ideas. Thus, when I discovered that he had been a Nazi who had not altogether repudiated or explained his involvement with Nazism, I had to ask myself: "If someone is so fundamentally wrong on such basic moral issues, are all his philosophical thoughts automatically suspect?"
Here, Friedman demonstrates an appalling, almost bestial lack of moral sensibility with respect to the invasion of Iraq. So what are we to make of his thoughts on greening the economy, which at face value are so rightheaded? Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
From the start, Hitler had assumed direction of the major strategy of the war. ... He then struck against France, invading through the Ardennes rather than through the Low Countries. ... The campaign as a whole was a brilliant success and Hitler could claim the major credit for its overall planning. ... Allan Bullock: ADOLF HITLER: A STUDY IN TYRANNY http://www.holocaust-trc.org/wmp07.htm
Allan Bullock: ADOLF HITLER: A STUDY IN TYRANNY
http://www.holocaust-trc.org/wmp07.htm
I am not saying that we should reject everything that Friedman (or Heidegger) wrote out of hand. But I believe that egregious errors in judgment are fair grounds for approaching an individual's views on any topic with a dose of skepticism. The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
I agree. This echoes your comment above as well.
Emotionally, however, I still feel uncomfortable when a thinker can be so repugnant ethically on one issue and yet have compelling philosophical ideas on other issues. Is this what they call "cognitive dissonance"? But these are feelings, nothing more than feelings. Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
Even this guy could appreciate the difference between ideology and philosophical merit:
In 1967 Heidegger had an encounter with the poet Paul Celan, a Jew who had survived concentration camps operated by the Nazis' Romanian allies. While admiring aspects of Heidegger's writings, Celan had long been aware of Heidegger's involvement with National Socialism. On July 24 Celan gave a reading at the University of Freiburg, attended by Heidegger. Heidegger there presented Celan with a copy of What is Called Thinking?, and invited him to visit him at his hut at Todtnauberg, an invitation which Celan accepted. On July 25 Celan visited Heidegger at his retreat, signing the guestbook and spending some time walking and talking with Heidegger. The details of their conversation are not known, but the meeting was the subject of a subsequent poem by Celan, entitled "Todtnauberg" (dated August 1, 1967). The enigmatic poem and the encounter have been discussed by numerous writers on Heidegger and Celan, notably Lacoue-Labarthe. A common interpretation of the poem is that it concerns, in part, Celan's wish for Heidegger to apologize for Heidegger's behavior during the Nazi era. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Heidegger
On July 24 Celan gave a reading at the University of Freiburg, attended by Heidegger. Heidegger there presented Celan with a copy of What is Called Thinking?, and invited him to visit him at his hut at Todtnauberg, an invitation which Celan accepted. On July 25 Celan visited Heidegger at his retreat, signing the guestbook and spending some time walking and talking with Heidegger. The details of their conversation are not known, but the meeting was the subject of a subsequent poem by Celan, entitled "Todtnauberg" (dated August 1, 1967).
The enigmatic poem and the encounter have been discussed by numerous writers on Heidegger and Celan, notably Lacoue-Labarthe. A common interpretation of the poem is that it concerns, in part, Celan's wish for Heidegger to apologize for Heidegger's behavior during the Nazi era.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Heidegger
If he were a formal logician or an analytical philosopher, I would be far less concerned (though even in those cases I suppose it is conceivable that one might find some connection between his philosophical ideas and his moral sentiments, remote and contrived though it may appear.) Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
If, for Heidegger, Nazism is a nihilistic and dehumanizing ideology based in the metaphysics of subjectivity, a modern ideology with which his thought cannot be identified, how should we then understand his most controversial statement from the Introduction to Metaphysics, about the "inner truth and greatness" of National Socialism? (52) First, this statement, made during a lecture delivered in 1935, can be regarded as ironic and as an expression of Heidegger's growing disappointment with actual National Socialism. To assess it properly, we have to consider the context in which it was made. In the context of a totalitarian state, where attitudes of loyalty to the ideology and hostility to its opponents are imposed in a particularly intensive fashion, even a slight criticism of the regime can be subjected to severe punishment. On the other hand, in such a context, any critical allusion or covert criticism becomes transparent to those who keep their ears open. It would then be immediately clear to the attentive audience of Heidegger's lecture that the "inner truth and greatness" of National Socialism did not imply its outward truth and real greatness. They would regard this statement not as a support of the actual Nazi movement but rather as a criticism of it. ... What follows from these statements is that Heidegger initially associated National Socialism with a movement that would bring Germany back to its "age-old traditions," renew its spiritual strength, and take it away from the heritage of modernity that has been developing since the seventeenth century. (59) Bringing Germany back to its ancient traditions constituted for him the "inner truth and greatness" of this movement. (60) He saw in it an antidote against modernism. However, he was soon disillusioned. Although the Nazis indeed tried to revive German traditions and regarded modernism as a disease, they at the same time engaged in building a totalitarian state and developed an ideology that was philosophically unacceptable to Heidegger. (61) The actual National Socialism, run by people who "were much too limited in their thinking," and with its political violence and book burning, totalitarian control of the vital resources of the state and the racial composition of the people, and politicization of society and mass rallies, was precisely the ideology which he covertly criticized in his writings, along with Americanism and Communism. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb3545/is_2_61/ai_n29399025/pg_7?tag=artBody;col1
... What follows from these statements is that Heidegger initially associated National Socialism with a movement that would bring Germany back to its "age-old traditions," renew its spiritual strength, and take it away from the heritage of modernity that has been developing since the seventeenth century. (59) Bringing Germany back to its ancient traditions constituted for him the "inner truth and greatness" of this movement. (60) He saw in it an antidote against modernism. However, he was soon disillusioned. Although the Nazis indeed tried to revive German traditions and regarded modernism as a disease, they at the same time engaged in building a totalitarian state and developed an ideology that was philosophically unacceptable to Heidegger. (61) The actual National Socialism, run by people who "were much too limited in their thinking," and with its political violence and book burning, totalitarian control of the vital resources of the state and the racial composition of the people, and politicization of society and mass rallies, was precisely the ideology which he covertly criticized in his writings, along with Americanism and Communism.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_hb3545/is_2_61/ai_n29399025/pg_7?tag=artBody;col1
The article goes on to suggest it was even more complex than that. It starts by saying:
MARTIN HEIDEGGER IS WIDELY ACKNOWLEDGED to be one of the most original and important philosophers of the twentieth century, while remaining one of the most controversial. His thinking has contributed to such diverse fields as phenomenology, existentialism, hermeneutics, aesthetics, literary criticism, and theology. His critique of traditional metaphysics and his opposition to positivism and technological world domination have been embraced by leading theorists of post-modernity. He influenced such prominent thinkers as Gadamer, Arendt, Habermas, Derrida, Foucault, and Lyotard.
Told you so... Funny it took the markets three more weeks than I to realize this...
Michael Klawitter, a strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said the cost of insuring Irish sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) has surged to 133 basis points. "The markets have begun to see a risk to the solvency of the Irish government. They are questioning whether it has the financial muscle to back up the guarantees," he said. [...] Ireland is vulnerable because financial services make up 9.8pc of GDP, including its 'Canary Dwarf' enclave of hedge funds. The liabilities of its lenders are twice Irish GDP. Britain, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria and Luxembourg are in the same boat. [...] Ulster Bank gave warning that Ireland's economy will contract by 4pc next year. As a member of the eurozone, Ireland cannot devalue or slash interest rates to cushion the downturn. Nor can it resort to a fiscal boost since the budget deficit is nearing 8pc of GDP.
