Workers are losing factory jobs at the fastest rate in decades. Automakers--having failed to anticipate today's sales slump--are lobbying politicians for bailouts. The stock market is a crash heap, home prices are down by 35 percent or more in many cities and toxic assets have begun to weigh heavily on banks. America in 2008? Try China, where the global economic downturn now looks certain to end the country's 30-year growth boom, posing the greatest leadership challenge to Beijing since pro-democracy demonstrations threatened one-party communist rule back in 1989. That's not the conventional take on China--yet. But with most industrialized countries now in recession and countries the world over hoping against hope that the planet's most buoyant major economy might somehow dampen the global downturn, it's a forecast that increasingly rings true.
Workers are losing factory jobs at the fastest rate in decades. Automakers--having failed to anticipate today's sales slump--are lobbying politicians for bailouts. The stock market is a crash heap, home prices are down by 35 percent or more in many cities and toxic assets have begun to weigh heavily on banks. America in 2008? Try China, where the global economic downturn now looks certain to end the country's 30-year growth boom, posing the greatest leadership challenge to Beijing since pro-democracy demonstrations threatened one-party communist rule back in 1989.
That's not the conventional take on China--yet. But with most industrialized countries now in recession and countries the world over hoping against hope that the planet's most buoyant major economy might somehow dampen the global downturn, it's a forecast that increasingly rings true.
This article answers a question I asked in a comment yesterday:
As for the second paragraph, as Pettis must surely know already, China is following the Keynesian prescription exactly. I don't quite understand why Pettis does not acknowledge that China is already doing what he recommends it should do, or at least the first half of his recommendation: China needs to resolve this problem by expanding fiscally, not by stimulating exports.
China needs to resolve this problem by expanding fiscally, not by stimulating exports.
in the following paragraph:
Why Beijing Is In A Risky Place | Print Article | Newsweek.com
The doubts about China's stimulus plan arise in part because it's all broad strokes with no fine print. Conceptually, however, it seems intended to split the difference between promoting consumption at home, and export sales. It includes commitments to fund rural infrastructure, boost social spending on health and education, and mount an "economic housing" scheme for migrant workers in major cities--all of which, if implemented, would raise household spending over time. But it also contains perks for heavy industry, value-added tax cuts for the export sector and lending provisions that will channel bank funding to state enterprises engaged in road and rail construction and away from private companies.
It is not just in China's export orientated manufacturing hub, the Pearl River Delta, that company bosses are leaving workers with unpaid wages. The global economic crisis is affecting all of China's eastern provinces, and more and more bosses are responding by cutting and running. In the city of Jiaxing, midway between Shanghai and Hangzhou, the local authorities exposed 45 companies whose representatives had fled this year leaving 3,744 workers with wage arrears of more than 11 million yuan. And in Zhejiang province as a whole, Xinhua reported on 17 November that in the first nine months of this year, 277 bosses fled leaving nearly 50 million yuan in unpaid wages, 6.5 million of which remains un-recovered. On 21 October, the Shenzhen Labour Bureau exposed 30 companies whose bosses had skipped town leaving a wage bill of 12 million yuan. One Taiwanese boss left his 400 factory workers in Longgang district with over two million yuan in wage arrears.
In the city of Jiaxing, midway between Shanghai and Hangzhou, the local authorities exposed 45 companies whose representatives had fled this year leaving 3,744 workers with wage arrears of more than 11 million yuan. And in Zhejiang province as a whole, Xinhua reported on 17 November that in the first nine months of this year, 277 bosses fled leaving nearly 50 million yuan in unpaid wages, 6.5 million of which remains un-recovered.
On 21 October, the Shenzhen Labour Bureau exposed 30 companies whose bosses had skipped town leaving a wage bill of 12 million yuan. One Taiwanese boss left his 400 factory workers in Longgang district with over two million yuan in wage arrears.
See also this earlier New York Times article: Workers leave, bosses flee Pearl River Delta Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
China has pushed through a series of emergency measures to protect jobs and stabilize the economy in the wake of the factory closures and mass layoffs that have swept the country over the last few months. Beijing's top labour official, Yin Weimin, told a press conference on 20 November that the employment situation was grim and could get worse before the central government's four trillion yuan economic stimulation package kicks in next year. "The global economic crisis is picking up speed and spreading from developed to developing countries and the effects are becoming more and more pronounced here. Our economy is facing a serious challenge," Mr Yin, the minister of Human Resources and Social Security said. Mr Yin's comments came after the ministry conducted a survey of the employment situation in Guangdong, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hunan and Zhejiang, assessing in particular the flow of migrant workers. On 17 November, the ministry issued a notice urging local governments to postpone raising the minimum wage, allow some service orientated companies to adopt flexible working hours and pay, and consider lowering social security premiums. Local governments should also ensure that at least 50 percent of those unemployed migrants who had been employed locally for more than six months are registered as unemployed. Previously, only workers with urban residency could register as unemployed. However, social security and subsistence payments in many regions are already much lower than the minimum wage and can not sustain unemployed workers, particularly those with families, for very long. The ministry also urged local governments to introduce measures to reduce wage arrears and regulate staff layoffs. The labour department in Guangdong has already strengthened its supervision of enterprises with economic difficulties, those initiating closure, and those with wage arrears of over one month. Particular emphasis has been placed on foreign owned processing industries and labour intensive factories. Moreover, the province will set aside 540 million yuan to subsidize small and medium-sized enterprises, and grant another 200 million yuan in tax rebates for labour-intensive, export-oriented enterprises. Shanxi and Chongqing have also introduced measures to control layoffs. ...
"The global economic crisis is picking up speed and spreading from developed to developing countries and the effects are becoming more and more pronounced here. Our economy is facing a serious challenge," Mr Yin, the minister of Human Resources and Social Security said.
Mr Yin's comments came after the ministry conducted a survey of the employment situation in Guangdong, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Hunan and Zhejiang, assessing in particular the flow of migrant workers. On 17 November, the ministry issued a notice urging local governments to postpone raising the minimum wage, allow some service orientated companies to adopt flexible working hours and pay, and consider lowering social security premiums. Local governments should also ensure that at least 50 percent of those unemployed migrants who had been employed locally for more than six months are registered as unemployed. Previously, only workers with urban residency could register as unemployed. However, social security and subsistence payments in many regions are already much lower than the minimum wage and can not sustain unemployed workers, particularly those with families, for very long.
The ministry also urged local governments to introduce measures to reduce wage arrears and regulate staff layoffs. The labour department in Guangdong has already strengthened its supervision of enterprises with economic difficulties, those initiating closure, and those with wage arrears of over one month. Particular emphasis has been placed on foreign owned processing industries and labour intensive factories. Moreover, the province will set aside 540 million yuan to subsidize small and medium-sized enterprises, and grant another 200 million yuan in tax rebates for labour-intensive, export-oriented enterprises. Shanxi and Chongqing have also introduced measures to control layoffs. ...
