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Except of course that the CDOs may fall due, but those investors may well not have the money to pay them out...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Nov 19th, 2008 at 11:15:58 AM EST
Indeed. Then again, many of them might. What the distribution is is anyone's guess, given that investors in these products are anywhere from private individuals to public bodies to banks themselves...
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 19th, 2008 at 11:40:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The money is already funded upfront by the investors and locked into the CDO. The banks are "safe" (at least, to the extent . But the money is parked in treasuries in the mean time. People don't realize yet that when major tranches get hit, the SPV's will sell off those treasuries (of maturities matching those of the CDO) that are not already part of a collateral agreement with the CDS buyer, and without arbitrageurs to make markets efficient these days, the sovereign yield curve will be warped into outerspace.

Now the best parts:

  • some existing ARM are based on such treasuries
  • all new fixed-rate mortgages are based on such treasuries.

Of course, the "safety" of the banks is limited to the total amount that they locked into synthetic CDOs and CLOs (which I always thought were evil). But that amount is not so much, in the hundreds of billions of dollars, but certainly not in the trillions as the article seems to imply. So at some point, that cashpile may get exhausted too...

Pierre
by Pierre on Wed Nov 19th, 2008 at 03:25:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, Kohler does ask if activation of the terms of the CDOs might be the cure, as someone will be getting lots of money.  Who would those people be?  If tons of treasuries come onto the market as part of the resolution, this would likely trash the market for new debt in the USA.  Individuals and institutions may be able to play this for profit using inverse ETFs, but everyone else is likely to be screwed big time, especially if it happens before Obama and the new Congress take office.  Could that be why Paulson is sitting on $400 billion of the TARP?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Nov 20th, 2008 at 03:08:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think it is enough money to trash the ability of the treasury to issue new debt (they will trash it all by themselves over the years, they have shown they know how to do it).

What it will achieve, is that some dots in the 20-30 yrs part of the yield curve will jump up a weird 0.1-0.5%, no one will be there to smooth it, so long-term rate indices will go up may be 0.2% for the first half of 2009.

And so new fixed-rate mortgage rates will go up by the same amount (also some 20% of ARM who thought they were tied to a secure, non volatile rate index). And that will further depress the equilibrium point of real estate prices by 5%. The market will just never adjust if the target keeps moving. Add in the recession... As real estate keeps tanking, banks will keep sinking, etc, and the spiral turns the recession into depression.

Pierre

by Pierre on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 10:31:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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