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Today I got turned on to the best explanation of how the CDO's exceeded -vastly- in number the mortgages that supposedly underlied them.
A great article, a great but scary story. Relates directly to the story told above. One I needed to understand what's happened.

Have you ever shorted stock?
Shorting involves a technical purchase of a stock.
If you believe a share in a company will decline in price, you can short sell it. You don't own it- but you buy (borrow?) "imaginary" shares, and sell them at the current price. Money from your sale of shares goes into limbo, but at a future time, you will need to purchase the shares, (buy to cover) to give them back to the borrower (original owner, sort of) and hopefully sell them at the current(lower) price, (if all this works), and pocket the difference.
Here's a totally different view of a short sell--one in which the shorter actually creates a market for dog shit.  It goes a long way toward explaining not only how we came to give Paulson a trillion or two, but the psychology that leads to stories like the one above.
The End


You have to understand this," he says. "This was the engine of doom." Then he draws a picture of several towers of debt. The first tower is made of the original subprime loans that had been piled together. At the top of this tower is the AAA tranche, just below it the AA tranche, and so on down to the riskiest, the BBB tranche--the bonds Eisman had shorted. But Wall Street had used these BBB tranches--the worst of the worst--to build yet another tower of bonds: a "particularly egregious" C.D.O. The reason they did this was that the rating agencies, presented with the pile of bonds backed by dubious loans, would pronounce most of them AAA. These bonds could then be sold to investors--pension funds, insurance companies--who were allowed to invest only in highly rated securities. "I cannot fucking believe this is allowed--I must have said that a thousand times in the past two years," Eisman says.

His dinner companion in Las Vegas ran a fund of about $15 billion and managed C.D.O.'s backed by the BBB tranche of a mortgage bond, or as Eisman puts it, "the equivalent of three levels of dog shit lower than the original bonds."
investors in this thing."

Whatever rising anger Eisman felt was offset by the man's genial disposition. Not only did he not mind that Eisman took a dim view of his C.D.O.'s; he saw it as a basis for friendship. "Then he said something that blew my mind," Eisman tells me. "He says, `I love guys like you who short my market. Without you, I don't have anything to buy.' "

That's when Eisman finally got it. Here he'd been making these side bets with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank on the fate of the BBB tranche without fully understanding why those firms were so eager to make the bets. Now he saw. There weren't enough Americans with shitty credit taking out loans to satisfy investors' appetite for the end product. The firms used Eisman's bet to synthesize more of them. Here, then, was the difference between fantasy finance and fantasy football: When a fantasy player drafts Peyton Manning, he doesn't create a second Peyton Manning to inflate the league's stats. But when Eisman bought a credit-default swap, he enabled Deutsche Bank to create another bond identical in every respect but one to the original. The only difference was that there was no actual homebuyer or borrower. The only assets backing the bonds were the side bets Eisman and others made with firms like Goldman Sachs. Eisman, in effect, was paying to Goldman the interest on a subprime mortgage. In fact, there was no mortgage at all. "They weren't satisfied getting lots of unqualified borrowers to borrow money to buy a house they couldn't afford," Eisman says. "They were creating them out of whole cloth. One hundred times over! That's why the losses are so much greater than the loans. But that's when I realized they needed us to keep the machine running. I was like, This is allowed?"


Read the article. A prize.

Grabbing what you can, as John Ruskin said, isn't any less wicked when you grab it with the power of your brains than with the power of your fists.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed Nov 19th, 2008 at 02:24:58 PM EST
Thanks Geezer.

I always enjoy reading Michael Lewis.

Great find!

I reread Liar's Poker, starting in late September.

It's sitting on a piece of furniture, four feet behind me, as I type this.

It's the best book on American investment banking and brokerage in the 80s that I have ever read.

And it seems a very appropriate read in these times.

"When the abyss stares at me, it wets its pants." Brian Hopkins

by EricC on Thu Nov 20th, 2008 at 06:06:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Second the recommendation.  It enables you to much better understand the scope and nature of the current problem, as well as its origin.  And it is very sobering.  That is why it is important that we get good people in charge of the legal system before this financial tsunami hits.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Thu Nov 20th, 2008 at 03:23:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

An excellent complement to Michael Lewis's article above is a multipart series by John Sakowicz on the US economy. It's impossible to find them all in one place, so I made a table of contents on my blog. Make yourself a cup of tea, put your feet up, and enjoy (?)



We're trapped in the belly of this horrible machine, and the machine is bleeding to death.
by davel on Thu Nov 20th, 2008 at 04:13:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the link, davel. I'll be reading Sakowicz.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 20th, 2008 at 04:17:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See also Michael Hudson in the Nov. 17 CounterPunch, excerpted in ET here.

If sanity be culturally normative, then by the norms of this culture I claim insanity.
by ARGeezer (argeezer a in a circle yahoo dot com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 02:02:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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