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Life as we know it survived the last 70m ocean level rise pretty well... Mass extinction is being caused by humans, but I don't think climate change, even rather quick, would be that catastrophic for a fauna that after all has been trained on quickly changing temperature for the last couple million years...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 04:46:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference with previous shifts, even if they were as rapid as the one we're now speculating about, is that humans have fragmented the habitats of (at least the higher) species to an extreme degree. Migration is going to be a lot more difficult. On top of that we get the extinctions already caused by direct human influence and invasive species spread by humans. So we have a very dangerous situation.

I'm not an ecologist, but my guess would be that most of the top of the food pyramid comes tumbling off if we continue as we do, and a lot of ecosystems will go into disequilibrium, causing further extinctions. It's a very dangerous situation for the human species to be in. We're not technologically ready to survive as more than a rump if the ecosystem services we rely on fall down. The amount of social upheaval that will accompany this transition makes planning it impossible. I'm pessimistic about human survival in the face of catastrophic climate change.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 05:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I certainly believe the change could be catastrophic for humans, but this would mitigate the ecological catastrophe for those higher order species... And barring nuclear winter type scenarios, I don't see how the human species would actually die out, despite seeing its numbers vastly reduced.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 05:17:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have seen articles within the last year which express concern that a shift into a super-interglacial, which was accompanied by a 6-8C increase in the average ambient, even over a period of several centuries, could exceed the rate at which local flora could successfully adapt.  There would, of course, be survivors, but these would not be appropriate to much of the local fauna, down to and beyond insectivora.  Unfortunately I do not have links or even hard copy, at least at hand.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 10:25:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You seem to have a very casual approach there. Life would take the mother of all blows from a rapid melting. The continents' shores are polluted enough that it would wipe off most of the shallow water marine life. Species are NOT trained to such a rapid change.
A lot of species died in the climate change periods of the holocen, and they were not nearly as rapid as what is projected. But also, species had a much larger and undamaged habitat then. And the shores were clean. Finally, there was no dominant species to kill all animals bigger than a grasshoper because it was starving from the huge reduction of its agricultural land.

It would be an unfathomable catastrophe.

Now, I don't expect +70m anytime soon, and by that I mean within the next million years. It would be too catastrophic not to take the most drastic of actions.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 05:19:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In this scenario, clouds of lotuses would likely become food for the, (noticeably less numerous,) masses.  Just because it sounds like doom porn and would make great backgrounds for post-apocalyptic barbarian epic movies doesn't mean it is, (or is not,) not a serious possibility.

Mig provided a link that showed the global effects of sea level increases up to 7 meters.  I believe that such a link that showed the effects of a 70 meter rise might be useful to show people what their great, great grandchildren, if any, could be inheriting.  Just because we will all be dead does not mean that we can abandon concern for posterity.  Perhaps one of the benefits of increased life span could be a heightened concern for future generations, more of whom some of us might see.


As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Nov 21st, 2008 at 10:48:34 AM EST
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