Of course it's very early to speculate, but I gather that French parties tend to run with the same candidates. If Besançenot stays popular and runs, that could take a few votes from the PS. And I don't think Aubry is going to be as popular as Royal.
Can the PS get its house in order in time to be able to frame the 2009 European Parliament elections? I hope that that the European party, the PES, can take some influence and make the European party the face of the elections, rather than the disputed leadership of the French branch.
According to a recent OpinionWay/Le Figaro/LCI poll, 17 percent of the French are considering supporting him. Bertrand Delanoë gets only 13 percent, Ségolène Royal 9 percent. Among Socialist and other left-wing voters, Besancenot's rise is even more dramatic: Twenty-six percent already see him as the "best opposition leader," whereas Delanoë gets 19 percent, Socialist chairman François Hollande 10 percent, and Royal 9 percent. Moreover, 65 percent of all respondents say they have a "very positive" opinion of him. http://michelgurfinkiel.com/articles/183-France-Beware-of-the-Red-Mailman.html
According to a recent OpinionWay/Le Figaro/LCI poll, 17 percent of the French are considering supporting him. Bertrand Delanoë gets only 13 percent, Ségolène Royal 9 percent. Among Socialist and other left-wing voters, Besancenot's rise is even more dramatic: Twenty-six percent already see him as the "best opposition leader," whereas Delanoë gets 19 percent, Socialist chairman François Hollande 10 percent, and Royal 9 percent. Moreover, 65 percent of all respondents say they have a "very positive" opinion of him.
http://michelgurfinkiel.com/articles/183-France-Beware-of-the-Red-Mailman.html
He is just as happy to advertise his friendship with the rappers Joey Starr et Monsieur R as he is to advertise his admiration for Che Guevara. "In the political arena, you get the impression that he comes from another planet", laughs Léon Crémieux, a member of the LCR's Central Committee. The style may be out of place on the Left, but the younger generation is happy with it. "By drawing new causes like ecology and anti-globalisation into the arena, he's been able to build up a base among first-time voters", as the researcher Vincent Tiberj emphasises. Within the generation born between 1977 and 1982, Besancenot's vote has reached 12%. http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1386
He is just as happy to advertise his friendship with the rappers Joey Starr et Monsieur R as he is to advertise his admiration for Che Guevara. "In the political arena, you get the impression that he comes from another planet", laughs Léon Crémieux, a member of the LCR's Central Committee.
The style may be out of place on the Left, but the younger generation is happy with it. "By drawing new causes like ecology and anti-globalisation into the arena, he's been able to build up a base among first-time voters", as the researcher Vincent Tiberj emphasises. Within the generation born between 1977 and 1982, Besancenot's vote has reached 12%.
http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1386
There are even some who speculate that a share of her support from local politicians is coming because she would probably lose more presidential elections, keeping the PS in opposition status, which helps it in local elections (which are mostly not at the same time as presidential elections) Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
However, the final spread in 1995 was 0.8 points closer than in 2007 (which is negligible).
So the draw was stronger than the pushback, certainly when we look at the first round.
Now I agree that most of Segolène Royal's tacking to the centre was electorally dumb, but that has to do with larger issues than losing a few voters on the left. Tacking to the centre often involves ceding the argument to your opponent and losing useful contrasts. It's still useful to do some of it, but you have to retain clear contrasts and look to be in control of your own line. Convincing the centre that your line is better is the main goal politicians (in a de facto two party system) have in an election.
To perform "M&M", you have to have very good control of your message machine and your personal responses. To control that, you have to have campaign discipline and unity. paul spencer
Interestingly enough, Sarkozy is also trying "the leftish posturing" mode since the beginning of the financial turmoil. He probably figured this is what would pass best with the French public. Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
But then, a lot in presidential campaigns is also determined by media coverage ; I think in 2002 small candidates where strongly covered by the media, whereas in 2007 they made Bayrou into the "third man"... Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
There is another baffling statistic, concerning the UDF candidate Francois Bayrou. While he trails both Sarkozy and Royal in the first round polls, despite advancing 4 percentage points in the last poll, he is leading both of them in a second-round contest. In other words, if faced with a choice between Bayrou and Sarkozy, or between Bayrou and Royal, the French would in both cases prefer Bayrou. But if faced with a choice between all three candidates at the same time, the French currently rank Royal ahead of Sarkozy, and Sarkozy ahead of Bayrou. Now again, remember there is a problem of selection bias, and we should remind ourselves that Bayrou is presently the darling of the press, something which may not last once people take a closer at this programme (and discover that he has not got one yet). ... Sarkozy will manage to unite the centre-right only if confronted by a tax-and-spend Socialist, such as Royal, but not by a consensual liberal such as Bayrou. http://www.eurointelligence.com/Article.620+M50a610f07e9.0.html
http://www.eurointelligence.com/Article.620+M50a610f07e9.0.html
