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On the other hand, Aubry might have beaten Sarko. The religious-like following of Royal was a strong draw for some people, but a huge pushback for others. I know several usual PS voters who either stayed away or even switched sides (OK, I find it hard to forgive switching sides for THAT man, but it did happen).

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 02:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And she is reinforcing this aspect of her persona post-campaign...

There are even some who speculate that a share of her support from local politicians is coming because she would probably lose more presidential elections, keeping the PS in opposition status, which helps it in local elections (which are mostly not at the same time as presidential elections)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 02:18:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Royal got 9.7 percentage points more in the first round than Lionel Jospin got in 2002, though, and 2.5 percentage points more than Jospin got in the first round in 1995.

However, the final spread in 1995 was 0.8 points closer than in 2007 (which is negligible).

So the draw was stronger than the pushback, certainly when we look at the first round.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 02:35:13 PM EST
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In the first round in 2007, there was a very strong "Vote Utile" movement, avoiding spoiler candidates, which explains the better performance in the first round. Note that in 1995, Chirac had added in some "leftish" color in his campaign that got him a larger share of the youth vote.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 02:42:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmmm... there will be a time and place to wonk over past presidential exit polls, if they exist. My guess would be that Chirac's leftish posturing also lost him some votes among the elderly. As Bernard pointed out in the thread yesterday, Sarko basically won on the back of the 65-plus people.

Now I agree that most of Segolène Royal's tacking to the centre was electorally dumb, but that has to do with larger issues than losing a few voters on the left. Tacking to the centre often involves ceding the argument to your opponent and losing useful contrasts. It's still useful to do some of it, but you have to retain clear contrasts and look to be in control of your own line. Convincing the centre that your line is better is the main goal politicians (in a de facto two party system) have in an election.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 03:02:34 PM EST
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styled Obama's approach as "Motherhood and Mismatch". His take was that Obama took a Motherhood issue, such as Health Care, put out a reasonable policy, then waited for the response of the opposition. Whenever the response was less reasonable, Obama and cohort could calmly restate their approach, and the other side would provide both the contrast and the publicity.

To perform "M&M", you have to have very good control of your message machine and your personal responses. To control that, you have to have campaign discipline and unity.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 03:50:40 PM EST
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Oh Chirac's not-that-leftish posturing was no put off for the elderly: it was all about "the social rift" (la fracture sociale) and the need to mend it, with him being the ideal experienced and consensual leader to achieve these aims. This is how he carried the 1995 election.

Interestingly enough, Sarkozy is also trying "the leftish posturing" mode since the beginning of the financial turmoil. He probably figured this is what would pass best with the French public.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Sat Nov 22nd, 2008 at 04:09:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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