But then, a lot in presidential campaigns is also determined by media coverage ; I think in 2002 small candidates where strongly covered by the media, whereas in 2007 they made Bayrou into the "third man"... Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
There is another baffling statistic, concerning the UDF candidate Francois Bayrou. While he trails both Sarkozy and Royal in the first round polls, despite advancing 4 percentage points in the last poll, he is leading both of them in a second-round contest. In other words, if faced with a choice between Bayrou and Sarkozy, or between Bayrou and Royal, the French would in both cases prefer Bayrou. But if faced with a choice between all three candidates at the same time, the French currently rank Royal ahead of Sarkozy, and Sarkozy ahead of Bayrou. Now again, remember there is a problem of selection bias, and we should remind ourselves that Bayrou is presently the darling of the press, something which may not last once people take a closer at this programme (and discover that he has not got one yet). ... Sarkozy will manage to unite the centre-right only if confronted by a tax-and-spend Socialist, such as Royal, but not by a consensual liberal such as Bayrou. http://www.eurointelligence.com/Article.620+M50a610f07e9.0.html
http://www.eurointelligence.com/Article.620+M50a610f07e9.0.html
